French right in dominant position as ‘tired’ voters prepare to send message to Macron in election

FRANCE – When the French go to the polls this Sunday, the result will likely reflect an unprecedented shift to the right in what could lead to the most conservative parliament since the country’s liberation in World War II, experts say.

The reasons are dissatisfaction with immigration, a weak economy, the cost of living crisis and discontent with the current centrist government, especially among young voters.

“France is currently experiencing its biggest shift to the right,” Matthew Tyrmand, an adviser to conservative candidates and political parties in Europe, told Fox News Digital. “This is democracy at work: People are furious and they’re not going to take it anymore.”

Rivals accuse Macron of spreading fear after French president warns of ‘civil war’ on the horizon

Marine Le Pen, president of the National Rally group in the National Assembly, joins Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, at the last rally before the recent European Parliament elections on June 9 (Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images) (Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Tyrmand continued: “The French people are fed up with seeing their Parisian leaders living off the EU’s dime while their cities burn, youth unemployment remains high, crime continues to rise, and racially motivated attacks and violence against ethnic French people persist.”

It is this same factor that allowed the right-wing National Rally (RN) to win 31.4% of the vote, the highest share of all French parties in the European elections earlier this month. This RRN, founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen in 1972, has reinvented itself in recent years under the leadership of Le Pen’s daughter, Marine Le Pen, and today helped by the party’s president, Jordan Bardella, aged 28 years old.

Unfettered immigration, which totaled more than 320,000 last year, not counting undocumented immigrants, worries many French voters. “It has more to do with instability and violence than with immigrants taking jobs away from French people,” says Leo Barincou, senior economist for Oxford Economics, based in Paris. “There are crimes that have made headlines that have been linked to immigration; that’s what’s driving the rejection of immigration.” Some of these events included terrorist attacks, murders and assaults. Another factor that causes voters to oppose more immigration is the cost imposed on taxpayers for welfare benefits,” he told Fox News Digital.

FRENCH RIVALS MACRON AND LE PEN DENOUNCE GROUP RAPE OF JEWISH GIRL AS ANTISEMITIC ATTACK SENDS PRE-ELECTION SHOCKWAVE

French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech, Wednesday, June 12, 2024, in Paris. President Emmanuel Macron addresses French voters Wednesday for the first time since he called early national elections after his party’s landslide defeat to the far right in the European vote. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

The threat of violence could be one factor leading young voters to demand the deportation of some immigrants. There was enough passion around this topic to inspire some musicians to create a song that was distributed on social media and became popular among Generation Z, that is, people aged 11 to 26. Lyrics include “I won’t leave, yes, you will leave. And sooner than you think.”

The economy of Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party is also not doing well. The cost of living crisis that followed the invasion of Ukraine pushed inflation to 6.3% in February last year, and then to 2.1% recently. Youth unemployment remains in double digits. Moreover, the level of housebuilding has been trending down over the past decade, making rent more expensive for young people. “If you have a cost of living crisis, whoever is in charge will bear the cost,” says Konstantinos Venetis, global macro director at TS Lombard in London. “Inevitably, when voters complain, those who wait to get into power will have an advantage.”

Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally (RN) and head of the electoral list, poses for a selfie with his supporters during a campaign rally for the European elections in Montbéliard, eastern France, March 22, 2024. (Photo by PATRICK HERTZOG/AFP via Getty Images) (Photo by PATRICK HERTZOG/AFP via Getty Images)

However, Venetis notes that the French economy is certainly no worse than that of other large European Union countries, such as Germany and Italy, and perhaps even better than the latter. “This year is supposed to be the year when the economy is going to bottom out,” he says, meaning economic growth is expected to improve. According to him, this will probably be fueled by an increase in public spending, perhaps even at the European level.

Yet many younger voters and those living in rural areas overwhelmingly voted for the National Rally in the European elections earlier this month, and there appears to be little reason to expect a different result this time – this. “There are very few places where the far right hasn’t been first,” Barincou said. Among the places that didn’t lean right was Paris, which fits with a long-standing narrative that people who work in professional jobs in large urban cities tend to take a progressive political stance, says- he.

AT 28, JORDAN BARDELLA SHAKES FRENCH POLITICS: “THROUGHOUT FRANCE, PEOPLE ARE WAKE UP”

French riot police use tear gas to disperse protesters during a pro-Palestinian rally at Place de la République in Paris, France, October 12, 2023. (Photo by Ibrahim Ezzat/Anadolu via Getty Images) (Ibrahim Ezzat/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The passionate youth vote for the National Rally may in part be driven by the younger Bardella, who not only communicates his ideas on TikTok, but is also barely older than many members of Generation Z. “I’m not too surprised that he is popular with young voters,” says Marc ChandlervsBannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist in New York told Fox News Digital. “I remember young people getting excited about former President Barack Obama being one of the youngest presidents in the United States.”

If the National Rally were to be elected to parliament, it is unlikely that France would leave the EU or the eurozone, Elias Haddad, senior market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, a banking firm, told Fox News Digital. “If the right comes to power, the dynamic between France and the EU will be a little more complicated, but it will not pose a threat to the monetary union,” he said.

Firefighters extinguish burning vehicles during clashes between protesters and police, following the death of Nahel Merzouk, in the Paris suburb of Nanterre, France. (REUTERS/Stéphanie Lecocq)

Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen appears to be planning a victory, suggesting that Bardella, as prime minister, should be involved in military defense decisions. While nominally the French president is the head of the armed forces, the constitution states that “the Prime Minister is responsible for national defense.”

CLICK TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

The French parliamentary system provides for a two-round vote. If a party does not obtain an absolute majority in the first round, the first two parties will face each other in a second ballot. The latter will take place on July 7 if necessary. On Friday, polls suggested the National Rally could get 37% of the vote.

The Associated Press contributed to this article.