MLB Trade Deadline: Yankees Should Consider Nationals’ Penal Options

The Washington Nationals could be an overlooked potential seller at this trade deadline. With a record of 39-43, they are not having the dream year that preseason projections predicted. Less than two weeks ago, they were tied for the final playoff spot in the confusing race for the National League Wild Card. Despite losing 7 of their last 11 games, if you want to look at things optimistically halfway through their season, they are still in the race, but just barely. They are four games behind with four teams between them for the final Wild Card spot. FanGraphs’ projection system does not predict a run in the second half of the season, with a 1.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Selling some of their veterans should be easy. Washington is making excessive progress, but it’s important to keep the bigger picture in mind. They also have some promising young prospects who could make up for the loss of production, like consensus top-five MLB prospect outfielder James Wood, who will be called up to the majors tomorrow. Maybe it was just posturing, but MLB Network’s Jon Morosi posted on X in mid-June that while teams had expressed interest, it was unclear whether they would be sellers. They still have a month left, but it would be wise to be patient with their process, especially considering this team’s lack of upside should they somehow make the playoffs.

Let’s start with the most likely candidate for a rotation trade to the Nationals, Trevor Williams. A few weeks ago, I would have swept up any starting rotation trade candidate. However, with each game in this brutal stretch, confidence in the Yankees rotation continues to diminish. Even before Nestor Cortes’ disappointing work yesterday, the rotation ranked 28th among all MLB teams in June with 0.1 in fWAR and has a collective ERA of 5.48. Williams had the best year of his career with a 2.22 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in 11 starts. He has been on the injured list since early June due to a flexor strain. It has not yet started launching according to the latest update this Friday.

It remains to be seen whether Williams can be healthy by the end of July. However, if he is available, the 32-year-old will be a half-season deal since he is a free agent this upcoming offseason. His 89 mph fastball has produced excellent results, ranking in the 95th percentile in run value. After posting a 5.55 ERA last season, he added a sweeper to his repertoire, and it has made a difference. This season, he has thrown it at a 20 percent rate, and it has baffled hitters. Hitters are hitting .166, slugging .167 and whiffing at a 44.6 percent rate against the pitch.

Here’s one against Anthony Santander who simply disappears in front of the plate.

It was only 11 games, but his peripheral numbers and low WHIP showed that he may have found a higher level through the use of his sweeper, and that he could be an attractive rental.

Much of the Nationals’ early success has been the stable bullpen that ranks eighth in baseball in f(WAR) as a unit.

Closer Kyle Finnegan can bring in at least a modest return. The 32-year-old currently has a 2.16 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, with 22 saves in 25 opportunities. His expected numbers indicated hitters were making good contact with him with a 4.00 xERA through the start of play Saturday. His arsenal is relatively simple as he throws a quadruple 66.7 percent of the time. Unlike Williams, he possesses a fastball with average speeds of 97.1 mph, with strong horizontal breaking. Its secondary tone is split finger and it has a whiff rate of 34.6 percent.

While he’s not the slugger, Nats pitcher Hunter Harvey could be considered the Nationals’ best pitcher. His ERA and WHIP won’t blow you away at 3.40 and 1.18, respectively, but he had an ERA under three in his previous two seasons with the team. He’s generating high strikeout and ground ball rates, ranking above the 80th percentile. He’s also been able to cover his teammates. Of the 14 times he’s gotten a runner on base, he’s only allowed one of those runs. Seeing how a pitcher fares with runners who aren’t his responsibility is a good indicator of how he might fare in tough situations, though the sample size isn’t as large. Based on FanGraphs’ leverage index splits, his best numbers have come in high-leverage situations with hitters having a .223 wOBA against him.

There are two other relievers in the bullpen worth keeping an eye on if the Nationals are looking to make half-hearted deals. Dylan Floro’s combination of sinker and slider fits the prototype of Matt Blake’s reliever. He is 33 years old and has a 2.23 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 38.2 innings. As a sinker, he relies on generating ground balls rather than strikeouts, the “ughs” report. He also has one of the slowest speeds in the league, averaging 89.9 mph on his fastball. His ground ball rate is in the 88th percentile and his barrel rate has an elite 1.8 percent rate, which is in the 97th percentile. They have yet another effective veteran coming out of the pen in Derek Law. A rarity for a reliever, he throws six different types of pitches. He gets hitters out of the zone at an elite rate of 35 percent, which is in the 97th percentile of qualified pitchers. As a result, he does well with ground ball rate, in the 75th percentile. What should be noted is that Law was not very good at preventing inherited runners from scoring, allowing 17 of 26 to score.

On the Yankees’ useless position player side, they’re more likely to move outfielders Jesse Winkler and Lane Thomas. Outfielder Dylan Crews, the second overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft and MLB.com’s No. 5 prospect, was called up to Triple-A this month and could follow Wood closely if things continue to go smoothly with the Rochester Red Wings. So losing Winkler or Thomas should be relatively painless for Washington. As for corner players, there are… no good options. They have Nick Senzel at third base, who has a year and a half of control after going untendered by the Reds. The former No. 2 overall pick’s hitting hasn’t set the world on fire, but he’s walking 12.1 percent to give him a respectable OBP. With a .211/.311/.371 slash line. He has a higher hitting and slugging tier than Oswaldo Cabrera (.234/.278/.345), but they’ll likely try to shoot higher when looking to bolster their infield with a trade.

The Nationals appear to have hit on something with their pitching development program. Pitching coach Jim Hickey, known as an “old-school” pitching coach, added former closer Sean Doolittle as a pitching strategist with a keen eye for pitching analytics this offseason. This trade deadline, their strong pitching development program could pay off as they have the opportunity to accelerate their rebuilding process by trading Williams and the bullpen. There will be plenty of suitors, including the Yankees, interested in what the Nationals have to offer.