Euro 2024 quarter-final preview: Ronaldo vs Mbappe as England meet Switzerland - Tips & Tricks

This article is part of our “Tips and Tricks” series, in which we use data and know-how to identify trends and insights for Euro 2024. You can find all the articles in the series here.

England are holding firm and travel to Düsseldorf on Saturday to face Switzerland with a place in the last four at stake. Will they come to an agreement or is another tense evening in store?

Elsewhere, Spain’s game against Germany could be a real success, while Cristiano Ronaldo or Kylian Mbappe will return home.

Here we look at the data to get a better idea of who will move one step closer to the trophy…

The Swiss look dangerous

Having come from the brink of elimination in the last 16 to reclaiming their place at the top of the knockout betting, favourites England face in-form Switzerland for a place in the semi-finals.

Twenty-four hours before Gareth Southgate’s great escape against Slovakia, the Swiss were the underdogs heading into their clash with Italy but they did not appear to be as they outclassed their opponents in every department, with Remo Freuler and Ruben Vargas scoring to end the holders’ defence of the trophy.

Murat Yakin’s team had more shots, more attempts on target, more attacks and better passing accuracy. And like in the group stage, their best work was done on the left side.

With Ricardo Rodriguez coming in from the back and Michel Aebischer and Vargas looking fit, England right-back Kyle Walker and co can expect a tough time.

Elsewhere, Freuler and Aebischer each had a goal and a pair of assists, while Switzerland’s seven goals in the tournament came from seven different scorers.

England are yet to reach the quarter-finals but the concerns are mounting, as Jack Pitt-Brooke and Jacob Whitehead discussed on The Athletic FC podcast earlier this week.

Southgate saw two players score all four of his team’s goals, with Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham getting two each. But clear-cut chances were few and far between and while England captain Kane leads the scorers’ market, Vargas offers better value. A Swiss victory is also attractive.

Toughest test yet for hosts Germany

Given the current form, this final would have been fitting and it would be a shame to lose one of the two best teams in the tournament.

Hosts Germany have scored the most goals in the competition (10), while Spain have the tightest defence, having conceded just one goal, against Georgia – a Robin Le Normand own goal – in their four matches.

Spain’s impressive performance has propelled them to second place behind England in the outright betting and they are favourites in Stuttgart on Friday night.

Youngsters Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal were key to Spain’s comeback, while Rodri kicked off the comeback after falling behind to the Georgians in the last 16.

That Georgia goal will have given Germany some hope that Spain could be hurt on the counterattack and, as Liam Tharme pointed out, only the tournament hosts (17) have had more direct attacks in the group stages than the Georgians.

Jamal Musiala was mentioned in The Athletic Germany have already posted some great stories and moved to the top of the goalscoring charts, but they can threaten from all over the pitch (see graphic), while at the other end Antonio Rudiger impressed against Denmark.

With home advantage, it is difficult to bet against Germany and for them, winning with both teams scoring is the bet.

Can Ronaldo Break His Duck?

France and Portugal were always expected to at least make it this far, but few would have bet on their ability to reach the quarter-finals, with Kylian Mbappe and Cristiano Ronaldo having scored just one goal between them.

Mbappe, the favourite for the Golden Boot before the ball was even kicked, opened his account from the penalty spot in the 1-1 draw with Poland, but Didier Deschamps’ side have yet to score a goal from open play. Own goals helped wins over Austria and Belgium, while the highly anticipated group game against the Netherlands ended goalless.

Portugal, meanwhile, performed well against the Czech Republic and Turkey, but a much-changed side lost to Georgia before goalkeeper Diogo Costa stole the show from Ronaldo in the last-16 win over Slovenia.

Costa’s three penalty saves saw the Portuguese through after a 0-0 draw after 120 minutes, but Ronaldo in tears after missing a penalty in extra time was the main image on the back pages.

The Portuguese haven’t scored in 244 minutes, and with the French not really in form and Costa looking solid, it would make sense not to score much in Hamburg.

In the longer term, consider Portugal on penalties.

The Dutch discover their rhythm

The Netherlands and Turkey have claimed the last two places in the quarter-finals and Berlin will be expected to bounce back when they meet head-to-head on Saturday.

Colourful Dutch fans finally got to see their team get into action as they beat Romania while Turkish celebrations could be heard across Germany after they beat Austria 2-1 to reach the quarter-finals for the first time in 16 years.

The Turks weathered the storm in the rainy Leipzig as the Austrians gave their all to equalise in the final half-hour and Vincenzo Montella’s men could experience the same in the German capital.

The Netherlands won 3-0 against Romania but dominated their opponents after Cody Gakpo’s 20th-minute opener, with 24 attempts on goal and 66 attacks.
Gakpo was everywhere, he was the assist provider for one of Donyell Malen’s two goals and, in this form, he is the man Turkey need to stop. He stands out in all the goalscoring markets.

The Netherlands go into this encounter as heavy favourites, so with either Switzerland or England in the running for the winner, Ronald Koeman’s side reaching the final is a more attractive option.

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