Newsom's July 4 stop in western Michigan goes beyond support for Biden, experts say

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is spending his Independence Day near Lake Michigan, traveling to the state to campaign for President Joe Biden amid many questions about the Democratic president’s re-election chances after last week’s lackluster debate performance.

Newsom is listed as a special guest Thursday at the Van Buren County Democratic Party’s July 4 “BBQ for Biden-Harris” event in South Haven, according to a Facebook page announcing the event.

The Biden campaign touted Newsom’s stop in western Michigan in a statement Wednesday, saying campaign officials were “thrilled” about his visit to a Lake Michigan resort town where the annual population of 4,000 swells in the summer with tourists and seasonal residents, particularly from the Democratic stronghold of Chicago.

“As president, Joe Biden has consistently looked out for Michigan, creating good-paying jobs, cutting costs and fighting for our freedoms, and we look forward to mobilizing West Michigan voters to send him back to the White House,” said Ed Duggan, state director for the Biden-Harris campaign.

However, longtime political observers said the last-minute trip to a crucial Midwestern state appears as much about positioning Newsom for a future presidential run as it is about trying to boost Biden’s campaign during a lull.

“(Newsom) has national ambitions. Everybody knows that,” said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, noting that key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are critical for politicians with their eyes on the White House.

“If Biden drops out and they actually have an open convention — which I doubt — (Newsom) will probably run. I don’t think he’ll have a choice,” Sabato added.

This comes as Biden told Democrats on a call Wednesday that he was not giving up on the race, according to the Associated Press.

“I’m running. I’m the leader of the Democratic Party. Nobody is pushing me to leave,” Biden said, according to a top aide who posted the comment on the social media platform X.

Sabato noted that Newsom — despite swirling speculation that he could replace Biden — was one of the first Democrats to appear on television after last week’s debate against Republican Donald Trump and endorse Biden despite his “horrible, historically terrible performance.”

Newsom, Sabato said, “is doing Biden a great service and hoping to get something in return. Welcome to politics.”

Matthew Dowd, a Michigan political strategist who has worked to support both Republicans and Democrats, agrees.

“I think it’s the right thing to do to support the party, but I also think it’s politically smart for Gavin Newsom because it shows the party that he’s not one of those people who’s abandoning ship,” Dowd said.

Both Dowd and Sabato said Michigan is a key indicator for them in this year’s election, making it a prime destination for Democratic representatives. “Tell me the results of Michigan and I’ll tell you who wins the presidency,” Dowd said.

On Wednesday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political forecasting agency, changed its forecast for Michigan in the presidential race from “leaning Democratic” to “undecided” alongside Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.

“I don’t know why the rest of us pay attention to the campaign,” Sabato said. “We don’t matter, but Michigan matters.”

For all Michigan’s importance, some are unsure whether Newsom’s visit will help Biden.

Political consultant Adrian Hemond, a Democrat and CEO of Lansing-based Grassroots Midwest, said Newsom’s appearance in South Haven might help boost his profile in southwest Michigan but will do nothing to help the Biden-Harris ticket in the Great Lakes state.

“A slick, well-heeled California politician is not what voters in West Michigan are looking for. I’m sure he’s helping energize Democrats who know who he is,” Hemond said. “But as far as shoring up Biden’s campaign in the places where it’s struggling right now — which is independents — yeah, Gavin Newsom’s not going to do anything for you.”

More: Biden vows to stay candidate after disastrous debate. ‘Nobody is pushing me to leave,’ he says

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was expected in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday to meet with Democratic governors and Biden at the White House, an event expected to focus on shoring up support for the president after the debate.

Newsom and Whitmer are among the names being floated as potential replacements for Biden if he withdraws from the presidential race. Their names have been widely discussed as possible replacements alongside Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some political pundits and at least one Democratic congressman, Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas, have called on Biden to drop out of the presidential race after the president sounded soft, rambling and, at times, incoherent during last Thursday’s debate.

More: Jill Biden Highlights Summer Nutrition Programs in West Michigan

Newsom and Whitmer have both made public statements of support for Biden amid the debate fallout, with Whitmer reiterating Monday that she “100 percent” believes Biden can win Michigan in November. Whitmer is Biden’s campaign co-chair.

“Not only do I believe Joe can win Michigan, I know he can because he has the evidence: he has cut health care costs, brought back manufacturing jobs, and is committed to restoring the reproductive freedom women lost under Donald Trump,” Whitmer said in a statement Monday.

Newsom campaigned as a Biden campaign representative in Nevada and South Carolina earlier this year. He plans to campaign in Pennsylvania on Saturday and New Hampshire on Monday, according to a social media post by Newsom’s deputy communications director, Brandon Richards.

Newsom’s stop in Van Buren County isn’t the campaign’s first foray into western Michigan. In February, Harris participated in a roundtable discussion on abortion with Whitmer, and in April, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker campaigned on Biden’s behalf in Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Holland.

First lady Jill Biden also made campaign stops in western Michigan on Wednesday, which the Michigan Republican Party derided with a statement hailing “the real President Biden in Michigan.”

“Under Joe Biden’s failed leadership, our economy is in ruins, our manufacturing jobs are at risk, and our neighbors are being victimized by illegal immigrants. We desperately need common-sense solutions, and Michiganders know it,” Victoria LaCivita, a spokeswoman for the Michigan Republican Party and the Michigan Trump campaign, said in a statement.

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