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Yankees should consider moving Anthony Volpe lower in the lineup to maximize production

Posted on by angelo

NEW YORK — Since Anthony Volpe became the leadoff hitter on April 10, he has the worst on-base percentage of any New York Yankees player with at least 250 plate appearances. He ranks third among the worst leadoff hitters with an 87 wRC+. No leadoff hitter generates as much soft contact as Volpe. Despite his discouraging numbers overall, Volpe has been the leadoff hitter for 76 games. Which begs the question: Why?

His lineup spot is a valuable asset. He’s hitting in front of two of his generation’s best hitters: Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Soto and Judge have the two best OPS in the American League. The Yankees aren’t maximizing their run production with their worst on-base percentage player in front of them.

“Look, it’s a fluid situation and we’re paying attention to it,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said before Wednesday’s game when asked why Volpe continues to be the leadoff hitter. “I hope he’s at the end of a little bit of a week or 10-day slump that’s alleviated that a little bit. He’s still a very young player figuring out who he is as a hitter, finding his groove and making a significant change and adjustment to his swing over the winter. … But it’s something I’m paying attention to and we’ll see.”

One of the Yankees’ problems is that they don’t have an obvious replacement in their lineup. Since April 10, seven Yankees with more than 100 plate appearances have a higher on-base percentage than Volpe. Alex Verdugo would be a candidate because he has plenty of experience as a leadoff hitter from his time with the Boston Red Sox, but he entered Wednesday’s game with a slightly higher on-base percentage (.299 compared to Volpe’s .294). Gleyber Torres, who has started infrequently for the Yankees, has an on-base percentage just over .300 during that span but was recently benched for underachievement. DJ LeMahieu, who was expected to start for the Yankees earlier this season, has not produced since returning from a foot injury.

The Yankees’ ideal leadoff hitter is Soto. Since the start of his career in 2018, Soto has the best OBP (.422) in MLB. The Yankees put intense pressure on opposing pitchers early in a game, which is usually a good strategy. This season, the Yankees are 34-10 when they score first and 20-24 when they don’t. Even last season, when the team was mediocre, they were 56-20 when they scored first.

Since Mookie Betts broke his hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been using designated hitter Shohei Ohtani as the leadoff man, ensuring their best player will see the most plate appearances in each game. The Yankees could have benefited from having someone else at the top of the order in Tuesday’s game, when Volpe came in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and a run behind. He was thrown out to end the game.

The Yankees are unlikely to move Soto to leadoff, though. He’s only hit twice in his career and is a player who thrives on a consistent routine. He compared the change in the batting order to a change in fielding position. But even if the Yankees make a change at leadoff, it might not solve all of their lineup problems.

“At different times of the year, it’s a challenge sometimes,” Boone said of the roster. “The first half of the year, you had to be flexible. You knew where everybody was and it was pretty fluid. It was easy. Obviously, the last couple of weeks, we’ve been thinking about it a lot more because we’ve had a couple of guys hurt, where do you put a guy and you know you could replace him, so it’s kind of two guys. It’s a little more difficult at different times of the year and this is one of those times, but that’s part of the game.”

Volpe’s biggest problem, beyond his place in the batting order, may be the dramatic change in his approach this season. He’s not hitting with any power. He hasn’t hit a home run in 43 games. Volpe hasn’t explained what he thinks of his new approach.

“I don’t know if I’ve ever taken a step back,” Volpe said. “I’m taking it day by day, pitch by pitch, at-bat by at-bat. I try to stick to it. After the season, I’ll take a breath and think about it all.”

Last year, Volpe focused on power, which hurt his contact rate. But this year, Volpe has gone too far in his quest for contact. He has reduced his fly ball strikeout rate by more than 50% from last season. He has 11 homers in 34 at-bats that ended with a fly ball struck out in 2023. This year, he has just three homers in 11 at-bats. Volpe showed the benefits of flying the ball in Wednesday’s game: He split the gap between left and center for a two-run double to cut the Cincinnati Reds’ lead to 3-2 in the seventh inning.

But his fly ball rate has dropped more than 7 percentage points this season. He’s hitting a ground ball in more than 50% of his plate appearances this year, compared to 40.1% in 2023. Volpe’s approach early in the season appears to have been to try to get an extreme amount of BABIP luck.

The strategy worked for the first two weeks of the season; Volpe looked like a star, but his BABIP was an unsustainable .448. Since becoming the team’s leadoff hitter, his BABIP is .307, and he’s not consistently hitting well. The main reason is that he often doesn’t hit the ball with much authority.

“He’s a guy who can hit for contact and I don’t mean he’s got power, I mean he’s a good hitter with power,” Yankees hitting coach James Rowson said. “What he’s doing right now is basically learning how to use the whole field. He’s not a guy who’s going to try to hit home runs. He’s a guy who’s going to be able to be a really good hitter who’s going to be able to hit balls out of the ballpark when you make mistakes where he hits the ball. He’s not close to being the finished product of what he’s going to be. I think he’s a really good guy who’s in the early stages of becoming a really good hitter in the game.”

It’s still too early to determine whether Volpe will become a great MLB hitter. In his first 1,000 major league plate appearances, he was a below-average hitter. The ideal version of Volpe sees him combining a good contact rate without sacrificing much power. The fact that he hasn’t been able to maintain much of the power he showed in his rookie season suggests that’s not feasible. But the Yankees insist that this year’s version of Volpe is a “much better hitter” than the one he showed last year.

“I think what he’s going through and the adjustments he’s made are making him a better hitter,” Boone said. “Those other things will come with experience and growth. How old is he (23) now? He’s just scratching the surface. The reality is he’s doing a heck of a job. I’m really excited about the adjustments he’s made that I think will be part of the process of him getting to the next level as a complete hitter.”

(Photo: Luke Hales/Getty Images)