Democrats’ economic message has always been a tough sell. Now it has a wounded salesman

Much of what former President Donald Trump said was exaggerated or wrong. “We had the best economy in the history of our country” before COVID, he claimed. Unemployment and inflation were indeed low. But Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton all had periods of growth in economic output, employment, and real wages (after inflation) that were as good or better than Trump’s first three years.

Asked about the increase in the national debt under his watch, Trump said, “We were ready to start paying down the debt” until Covid-19 hit. His own budget did not contemplate that.

To illustrate his point, Trump had only to point out that prices rose 8% during his term and 20% under Biden. Wages, after inflation, rose when he was president; they fell under Biden.

Last year, under Trump, was a tough year for the economy. As Biden pointed out, unemployment reached nearly 15% and the budget deficit hit a record high.

But it was the result of a global pandemic. Public opinion did not hold Trump responsible for the economic damage, then or now.

Most of the damage is not due to the virus but to the lockdowns and social distancing measures. Trump could have pointed out that states (mostly Republican-led) that followed his advice and quickly lifted lockdowns and resumed in-person classes rebounded more quickly than Democratic-led states that did not. By the time Trump left office, unemployment was down to 6.4% and would continue to fall.

He could also have pointed out that his deficits were the result of emergency spending, and that Democrats not only voted for all that spending, but wanted more of it — and got it from Biden, as well as from inflation.

Before last week’s debate, Biden had a harder time convincing voters on the economy than Trump did. By many measures—economic growth, unemployment, the stock market—the economy is doing well right now. But for the average voter, those positives are overshadowed by high prices, high interest rates, unaffordable housing, and a general malaise about the country. Polls show that more Americans think they were better off under Trump than under Biden.

Biden could credibly argue that inflation in his first two years, like unemployment in Trump’s final year, was largely due to events beyond his control: widespread supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That’s why inflation has risen almost everywhere, not just in the United States.

While Biden’s stimulus has contributed to inflation, it also partly explains why growth and real wages have held up better in the United States than in most other rich countries. If Biden can’t erase the memories of his first two years, he could point to the progress made last year, when, thanks to historically tight labor markets, wages finally grew faster than prices.

Moreover, if you are angry about inflation today, the election is about the future, and Biden could reasonably argue that inflation will be worse under Trump, hitting all imports with a 10% tariff, potentially deporting undocumented workers, causing labor shortages, and threatening to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Last week’s debate did little to address this. Biden struggled to express himself clearly, misrepresenting his own record on job creation (confusing thousands and millions of people) and ending a response to a question about the national debt with the infamous non-sequitur: “We finally beat Medicare.”

If the economy was the main obstacle to Biden’s re-election, it is now his age that is the obstacle. The question remains whether he will remain the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Could a better messenger change minds about the party’s economic record? Perhaps not. Biden’s political team long ago concluded that the public doesn’t care whether things are worse in other countries, and that optimistic data means nothing when people have a deep sense that they are falling behind.

“The economic message is not based on facts or data, but on empathy and context,” said one veteran of Democratic administrations. “When Trump says America first, he means Trump first, Trump second, always. Biden is interested in you first, your family first.”

But what viewers saw last week was not empathy but fragility, leaving Democrats with a tough economic strategy and an ineffective salesman.

Another candidate would still struggle to overcome public skepticism about the economy. Vice President Kamala Harris would have to defend a record she shares with Biden, not to mention positions she championed in her unsuccessful bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination, such as Medicare for All. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, another potential contender, would have to answer for his state’s unemployment, population loss and homelessness problem.

But polls suggest that some voters are willing to give Biden’s agenda a chance in someone else’s hands.

“Biden can’t change two things: his age and the 20% increase in prices,” said Marc Sumerlin, a former economic adviser to George W. Bush and now an independent political analyst. “The best thing he can do for the Democratic Party is change horses. Create a whole new economic narrative.”

Write to Greg Ip at [email protected]