The most successful PR campaign and battle ever waged and it was waged by the bad guys

After the debate, many more claims were made that President Biden was senile. Many people claimed that the best way to explain what we saw from Joe Biden in the debate was to say that President Biden was senile.

If what we saw could be explained in some other way that is consistent with President Biden’s mental health, then the 90-minute meltdown at an event in June is absurd. It’s hard to deny that truth. That’s the fundamental question: Is President Biden mentally healthy or not, because if so, then the meltdown is one of the most over-the-top and stupid things many seemingly brilliant people have ever experienced. because the event, whatever it was, took place in June. If the only problem is that it was seen during the event that President Biden was senile or suffering from early dementia or something, but none of that is true, then the panic is unwarranted and unjustified. The reason it is true is that we have four months to correct that misperception. So the only justification for the panic is that President Biden is in fact senile or suffering from early dementia or something similar. However, what we have seen can be interpreted in a number of ways. Confirmation bias is why so many people have gotten carried away, claiming that President Biden is senile or suffering from early dementia or something similar, and therefore needs to be replaced on the ticket. So we have to ask ourselves, “How did we get here?” However, first we will look at the claim and an alternative explanation.

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Where is there any evidence that Joe Biden has early dementia or is senile? If you are talking about the event, you have to compete with other hypotheses. The president is 81 years old, has apparently had several events before, has had a very bad cold, has struggled a lot with the Gish Gallup test, and is simply unable to hide his stutter as he used to. Is there any data to support this from anywhere? The answer is no. Is the administration providing evidence that it is being run by someone who is senile or demented? The answer is no. In fact, the opposite is true. Joe Biden has an 81-year-old brain. His brain has aged. He does not react as quickly intellectually as he could when he was younger. His processing time is longer. He absolutely has trouble filling time well. Every now and then he can lose his train of thought. It is unlikely that he would perform well in an event with formatting like this. He needs to be able to hide his stutter and he absolutely could not do that in this event. On the other hand, this event does not replicate the conditions in which the president holds office. Therefore, I am not sure what meaningful information or data we could glean from this evidence. Instead, it seems to me that it is much more relevant to evaluate the results of the two different administrations.

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What seems absolutely clear to me is the importance of confirmation bias in this whirlwind. President Biden was less available and less visible to begin with. The media had already started to emphasize age, as the Trump campaign did in the 2020 presidential election. Then the New York Times violated the basic news policy of all administrations. The administration insisted that the New York Times agree to this policy after failing to do so before. They refused. President Biden remained less available or less visible. The media then began to hype up Joe Biden is old, he’s made gaffes, he may have dementia, as the Trump campaign did. Throughout this time, and especially after he won the primary, there was not this unanimous call for him to end his campaign. This call now came from the pundit class supported by some Never Trump Republicans and some on the left who disliked him for other reasons, and then confirmation bias broadened the field of those calling for his head. However, we see the real power and effectiveness of this messaging campaign against him months ago.

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Did you notice that even the Democratic Party members of Congress were relieved after seeing the long State of the Union address? They even joked about it, as did President Biden. When even the Democratic Party members of Congress are relieved, it shows you how pervasive and influential the messaging campaign that President Biden is too old, that he makes a lot of gaffes, that he might have dementia has been. Isolating President Biden because of his age, his gaffes, and his speech impediment was a big mistake. The result of his lack of visibility and the campaign against him has been this belief or this worry that he is senile or has dementia. People then see what they were looking for and that they were already worried about and it confirms their previous doubts or their previous false assumptions. This is a classic example of confirmation bias.

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The data on the event says something completely different: This event swung a lot of people toward Donald Trump. The responses of a thousand people at the event say something completely different: This event won the election for Donald Trump over President Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised if some polls showed a short-term hit to President Biden in the polls. Even before the response rate problem, where supporters of the candidate the media is chasing refuse to answer pollsters’ calls or participate in polls. That’s what happened with Trump supporters, that’s why the polls overestimated President Biden’s victory by two and a half percentage points, and that’s what’s happening now with President Biden supporters.

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There is also the question of event evaluation. Negative partisanship is a fundamental truth of our current politics. So we can try, as the crackpots want to do, to treat the situation as if swing voters or all voters know absolutely nothing about either candidate and that their only information comes exclusively from the event and decides the winner, but that is stupid and absurd. Of course, I am not going to predetermine the debate evaluation in advance as some seem to want to do by creating event evaluation rules that overwhelmingly favor Donald Trump. It is absurd to decide that what we saw from Donald Trump on Thursday night, his inability to verify reality or his willingness to lie like a sociopath to gain power, is irrelevant.

Sociopathic liars use lying as a tool of manipulation or control, and their lies are often motivated by self-interest, avoidance of responsibility, and the desire for power.

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In a real debate, of course, if you choose to talk about something that has nothing to do with the question being asked or go off topic for a large part of your answer, you lose that part of the debate if the other person even tries to stay on topic. On the other hand, if you introduce statements that are grossly dishonest and can only be interpreted as lies, you lose that part of the debate. If you do it enough, you lose the debate. I’m not sure that, even if we pretended that this all happened in a vacuum, Donald Trump won. In the age of negative partisanship, who was moved? Undecided voters swooned for Donald Trump after what we saw in him that night? I hate to break it to you, but the dials did not turn in his favor and independents stagnated for him and not Joe Biden. What can I tell you? I’m sorry.

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So what we’re left with is this 90-minute event in June, which is not very significant or relevant in the midst of a ton of other facts and information that seem much more relevant. Have we seen this in other contexts? No. I’ve seen detailed interviews with President Biden recently and he was absolutely perfect.

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As I have said many times, the administration needs to make the president visible. I would not make him ubiquitous, but some events with the mainstream media need to be held. They were concerned about unfair and hostile coverage of President Biden showing his age, his speech impediment, and/or making gaffes. However, the coverage could not be worse. Even with gaffes, slower processing time, and his stutter, if President Biden shows that he is mentally healthy, voters will choose him, with his flaws and all those positive traits, over Donald Trump. President Biden is older, his brain is older, but he is mentally healthy. In an old Charlie Brown episode, I can’t remember if it was Linus or Lucy, I think it was Linus who said he NEVER ate December snowflakes because they were too early. That was a June event. This event will be a footnote in the history books and on Wikipedia. The outcome of this presidential election is far murkier and more uncertain than many of those currently engaged in the panic seem to believe. The fact that Donald Trump ran for president twice and that we have information beyond that provided by current opinion polls escapes them. The fact that it is June escapes them.

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Josh Marshall’s argument is compelling: We lied to you before and said President Biden was mentally healthy, but in reality we allowed a senile man with severe cognitive decline to run the White House for the last four years, but now that you’ve figured it out, we want you to trust us again and support our new nominee, Vice President Harris, who is doing very well, trust us!

I’m not entirely convinced that this is a winning message for the President of the United States.