Why the SNP was shocked by Labour’s rise

After 14 years in opposition, Labour has made a dramatic return to power in Westminster – and its majority has been boosted by a series of seats in Scotland.

It is a result that marks a return to electoral wilderness for the party, having won just one constituency north of the border in the 2019 general election.

As the party won seat after seat, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar achieved what his five predecessors had failed to do: end the SNP’s run of elections.

And Labour achieved this by winning back votes from both the SNP and the Conservatives, with gains across the country.

It was the scale of the victories that surprised many: the party had expected to recapture hotly contested seats in its traditional central belt strongholds, but had hoped rather than expected to extend its reach beyond them.

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‘Very bad result’ for SNP as Labour gains ground

The Scottish Labour campaign has certainly benefited from the momentum created by the British Labour Party’s comeback, determined to oust the Conservatives from Downing Street.

Greater attention to issues such as the cost of living, rather than the previously dominant constitutional arguments, has also helped ensure that Sarwar is not excluded from the debate by the SNP and the Conservatives.

The victory will now serve as a springboard for the 2026 Holyrood election campaign – with the party embarking on a serious contest at Bute House for the first time in more than a decade.

If it was a celebratory night for Labour, it was a disastrous night for the SNP.

Having transformed itself into an election-winning machine, the party lost dozens of the 48 seats it won in 2019, marking its worst performance in a general election in more than a decade.

Losses were expected.

The SNP’s problems are well known: disillusionment with the lack of progress towards independence, internal divisions over gender equality reform and the ongoing police investigation into the party’s finances, to name just a few.

But many SNP members were shocked by the scale of the defeat, as seat after seat went from yellow to red.

And what about John Swinney and his party now? And what about the question of independence?

After all, the SNP told voters that a majority of Scottish seats would provide a mandate to negotiate an exit from the UK.

Of course, the party is not ready to give up its attempt to hold a new referendum, but it seems unlikely that it will change its mind in the near future.

Mr Swinney had only been in office as leader for a few weeks before the election was called, and so should not bear responsibility – although many point to his role as Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy, insisting that not all the blame can be placed on Humza Yousaf.

The SNP leader said he would have to get back on his feet, but that it would have to be done quickly. He now faces the challenge of getting the SNP back on track in time for the 2026 election.

This election now looks much more difficult, given the growing support of the Labour Party.

But Sarwar will also face new challenges: he will need Sir Keir Starmer to deliver on at least some of his promises in the first months of the new Labour government.

If Mr Sarwar is to retain the votes lent to him by pro-independence SNP supporters, Labour will also have to demonstrate that it can deliver on its promises in Scotland and that its Scottish leader can influence decisions made by 10 Downing Street.