Which teams are likely to accept an offer from Jeremy Swayman?

The deadline for teams to elect arbitration passed yesterday afternoon. Notably, the Boston Bruins decided not to opt for salary arbitration with goaltender Jeremy Swayman leaving them vulnerable to a possible offer since Swayman himself has not chosen either. The Bruins have $8.6 million in salary cap space to manage their only restricted free agent, but several teams could give Boston a hard time.

A hypothetical offer for Swayman would likely fall in the “Tier Five” range, which would require a salary of $6.87 million to $9.16 million and would require the signing team to send its next first-, second- and third-round picks (the picks may not be the original property of another team) to the Bruins if they are unwilling to match. Boston would likely match a max offer for Swayman even if it were closer to the $9.16 million range, but they would be getting dangerously close to the salary cap for the upcoming season.

According to CapFriendly, the only teams that could sign Swayman to a contract of that magnitude would be the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers and Seattle Kraken. The Sabres and Red Wings appear unlikely to do so, as they will have limited salary cap space to make trades once they sign the rest of their restricted free agents, while the Predators and Islanders already have established goaltenders at the NHL level. Additionally, the Flyers and Kraken don’t have enough salary cap space to cause Boston any problems.

So why not theorize about the possibility of rekindling one of the best rivalries in the game?

The Canadiens have just two restricted free agents left to sign with just over $10 million in cap space. Arber Xhekaj And Justin BarronNeither player is expected to reduce that salary cap too much and wouldn’t necessarily prevent Montreal from making a move of that magnitude. The Canadiens aren’t far from making a statement via an offer sheet, as they’ve signed Sebastian Aho to a five-year, $42.27 million offer, later matched by the Carolina Hurricanes.

Montreal could open up additional space under the salary cap this summer by trading Christian Dvorak And Joel Armia By trading the two players, the Canadiens could free up nearly $8 million under the salary cap and could easily give their roster spots to younger players. And that’s without counting their asset.

Currently, the former goalkeeper Carey PriceSwayman’s $10.5 million salary for the upcoming season has not been officially factored into the Canadiens’ cap calculation. Montreal wouldn’t need to put Price’s contract into cap space at all this season, but if they choose to, their cap space could be as high as $20.68 million, giving the Canadiens plenty of room to safely add Swayman’s contract.

The draft picks that would have to be returned to Boston would represent a reasonable cost for the Canadiens. Through several different trades, Montreal holds a conditional 2025 first-round pick from the Calgary Flames, a 2025 second-round pick from Pittsburgh, a conditional 2025 third-round pick from New Jersey and a 2025 third-round pick from Vancouver. Even if the Canadiens were to part with their first-, second- and third-round picks for the 2025 NHL Draft, they would still make four selections in the first three rounds.

The main downside to signing Swayman to an offer sheet would be the negative consequences for the Canadiens’ current starting goaltender, Sam Montembeault. Montembeault didn’t have a breakout performance last season, but he still went 16-15-9 in 40 starts with a .903 save percentage and 3.14 goals-against average. Montreal committed to Montembeault based on his performance by signing him to a three-year, $9.45 million contract extension effective Dec. 1, 2023.

Montembeault’s consistency doesn’t match Swayman’s in Boston, however, as the goalie has gone 79-33-15 in 125 starts while posting an impressive .919 save percentage and 2.34 goals-against average over his career. The Canadiens can get one of the best goaltenders in the game while also battling their bitter rivals.