French far right defeated by election surprise

Samantha Donovan: It was a night of celebration for left-wing voters in France, after the rise of the far right was thwarted in the second round of the general election. In a surprise result, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally was relegated to third place, instead of winning an outright majority and installing a new prime minister, as she and many commentators had predicted. The vote was dominated by an alliance of left-wing parties, followed by the centrist bloc of President Emmanuel Macron. Luke Radford reports.

Luc Radford: For weeks, left-wing voters in Paris had been preparing to face their worst fears. But as the polls closed, their apprehension over the long-awaited victory of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally quickly gave way to celebration.

Notice: Yes, it is a big surprise, said this man. We did not expect this. I am very happy.

Notice: In the aftermath of the first round of voting last week, it looked as though the National Rally would either win a majority or at least become the largest party in the French parliament. But after a coordinated campaign, a coalition of left-wing parties won the most seats, followed by President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, with the National Rally coming in third. A result that was also welcomed by this French woman.

Notice: France must remain an open country, where people live together with other cultures. It was frustrating to see this happen, but it is no longer the case.

Luc Radford: Despite a stronger-than-expected result, the left-wing coalition will face challenges almost immediately. Even though it won the most seats, it will not be able to govern alone and will have to negotiate an even broader coalition with the centrists. Bronwyn Winter is Emeritus Professor in the Department of European Studies at the University of Sydney.

Bronwyn Winter: The most likely outcome is a coalition between the New Popular Front and Emmanuel Macron’s coalition, Ensemble. This is the most likely coalition, and it would win an absolute majority in parliament. However, for this coalition to happen, all the parties in these separate coalitions need to come together. So the New Popular Front has four different parties, Ensemble has a number of them. So they all need to come together and agree within their own coalitions to achieve this. Then you need a broader coalition between the New Popular Front and Ensemble. The question then becomes: who will be prime minister?

Luc Radford: Despite this setback, the National Rally still increased its share of the vote and will now be a more important force than ever in the French parliament. Professor Winter believes the party has learned the lessons of its previous electoral defeats.

Bronwyn Winter: They’ve been around for a long time. They’re stayers. They participated in two or three rounds of the presidential election. First Jean-Marie Le Pen, then his daughter Marine. And everyone had to mobilize to defeat them. So you know, they’re not going to disappear. And they have a new young audience. They’ve professionalized the party. They have more women who are getting involved. They have young men who appeal to young people, etc. So they’re not dead, far from it.

Luc Radford: And while the National Rally’s brutal defeat shocked many, Deakin University’s Professor Simon Tormey says it is not an uncommon outcome in the French electoral system.

Simon Tormey: But that’s what the French are used to doing. It’s not unusual. It’s what they call the barrage. In other words, you create a barrier against the forward march or something that you don’t like. And in this case, of course, it’s the National Rally.

Luc Radford: The French will go to the polls again in 2027, when the post of President of the Republic will once again be up for grabs. And according to Simon Tormey, this will be the decisive turning point in the National Rally’s fight to control the French political landscape.

Simon Tormey: So they have made progress. The question is when will they swing into power? And if not in 2024, will it be in 2027, in the next presidential election, when Marine Le Pen runs? And we don’t know who will emerge from the center and the left, because Emmanuel Macron will have finished his two terms and we will need a new political figure to run in that election. It may be that by then the French people will be ready to welcome the National Rally. But it was supposed to be that election. It didn’t happen. And many people around us are breathing a sigh of relief.

Samantha Donovan: Professor Simon Tormey of Deakin University, this report by Luke Radford.