“Macron gets some breathing room. But at what price?”

LWhen Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly on June 9, he expected a “clarification.” It came on one point, and one point only: the French showed that they did not want the National Rally (RN) in power. The “republican front,” although hastily put together and burdened with contradictory instructions (calls to block the RN versus those to vote “neither” for the RN, “nor” for France Insoumise), worked at full capacity and is the only big winner of the second round of the early legislative elections.

For the rest, the outcome of the elections plunges France into a fog of uncertainty. The National Assembly is divided and ungovernable, unless an agreement is reached between the New Popular Front (NFP) and Ensemble (President Macron’s coalition), who have been engaged in a power struggle for years, with the right-wing party Les Républicains, until now a supporter of the government coalition, and the RN having already made it known that they would refuse to reach an agreement with the Macron camp.

As for the two blocs, NFP and Ensemble, they are divided within themselves, whether in terms of ideological or strategic orientation. Faced with the challenge of finding an absolute majority to implement its program, the hardest part is only just beginning for the left bloc, dominated by the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) who is increasingly contested, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has declared that he refuses any negotiation. For its part, the centrist bloc, saved by the Republican front, may have avoided the predicted rout, but it comes out of the race weakened, with a hundred fewer deputies. This bloc is also divided, between its right and left wings, against a backdrop of powerful rivalry between the potential heirs of Emmanuel Macron, who seceded on Sunday evening.

By calling for a “new era,” Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who has a contentious relationship with Macron, set a date for what comes next. He took the opportunity to distance himself from his rival, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, who has said he will not stay in government for another day after July 7. The prime minister, for his part, has presented himself as a man of “duty,” ready to stay as long as necessary, in the run-up to the 2024 Paris Olympics. For his part, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe dryly lamented that the decision to dissolve the Assembly had led to “great indeterminacy,” which “puts the country in danger in a way that no one should underestimate.”

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