How to get Russia to stop the war in Ukraine / JAMnews

How to make Russia stop the war in Ukraine

Latest developments: On July 8, Russian troops bombed Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital. The attack killed at least 33 civilians and injured 143 others. The first strike targeted kyiv, killing 27 people. However, massive missile strikes were carried out across Ukraine.

The attacks came as Russian President Vladimir Putin has made numerous statements expressing his willingness to negotiate. However, most observers view these statements as ultimatums with conditions unacceptable to kyiv.

Recently, advisers to US President Donald Trump also presented their “peace plan”. They propose to withdraw US military aid to kyiv if the country refuses to negotiate with Moscow.

What do the Ukrainian authorities think about these “peace initiatives”? Mikhail Podoliak, advisor to Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, answered Meduza’s questions.

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Let’s start with the success of the peace summit.

Working groups have been formed in three areas, including prisoner exchange. With the participation of mediators from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Vatican, exchanges of prisoners of war and civilians have taken place. If the goal is to exchange all for all, the possibility of carrying out exchanges has at least been unlocked.

Two other working groups were also set up, one on nuclear safety, the other on the operation of grain corridors.

There is a desire to expand international participation by including countries that maintain a neutral position, encouraging them to play an active role. The upcoming discussions will cover all points of the peace plan presented by Ukraine.

Ukraine’s “peace formula” includes:

• Ensuring the radiation, nuclear, food and energy security of Ukraine,
• Exchange all prisoners of war and return the deportees,
• Restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine (within the 1991 borders),
• Withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territories,
• Prevent further escalations,
• Create a special tribunal to investigate Russia’s crimes against Ukraine,
• Develop a mechanism for compensating for damage caused to the country during the war.

kyiv first presented the “peace formula” in the fall of 2022.

Instruments to put pressure on Russia and encourage it to negotiate between summits

Military supplies to Ukraine:

Ukraine should receive more military supplies, and the remaining informal restrictions that have prevented Ukraine from effectively waging a defensive war by destroying Russian resource capabilities in the occupied and border areas should be completely lifted.

These restrictions are easing and Ukraine is receiving more and more consumable equipment, including long-range missiles and missile defense systems.

Punishments:

The 14th package of sanctions that we have seen is quite effective and strict, as it addresses the issue of separation of the Russian financial system from the global system.

Significant work has also been carried out on Belarus, one of the countries through which Russia could obtain, for example, dual-use components and devices.

International isolation of Russia:

The most difficult aspect to debate is Russia’s international isolation.

Russia should have fewer opportunities to use international platforms.

If these three pressure tactics work, the second peace summit will be a success.

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Russia’s proposals are about Ukraine’s surrender, not peace

Everything Russia is proposing today is not about peace, but about Ukraine’s surrender. The “peace formula” enshrines the concept of a just peace, based on the return of international law. Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that any country can make any proposal, but any proposal that is not based on international law is only a way to freeze the war in conditions unfavorable to Ukraine, with the possibility of unfreezing it at later stages of the war.

Such a proposal would imply that international law does not exist and that no aggressor is obliged to pay for its aggression, either legally or financially.

Will there be a Russian representative at the next summit?

The Ukrainian President mentioned that Russian representatives could participate in the upcoming summit, as it is necessary to develop a road map leading to the end of the war.

This road map should outline all the conditions for ending the war, taking into account primarily the interests of the attacked country.

It is crucial to know what will happen on the front and in Russia before the second summit. If effective strikes on Russian territory continue and intensify, with failure points on the front and deserted units, Russia’s internal stability will weaken.

These incidents will affect the sentiments of the elite, which will determine the composition of the Russian leadership over time.

Then we can discuss who will represent Russia and how we can negotiate with them.

NATO’s role in coordinating aid

NATO must play a greater coordinating role. It must not be reduced to an abstract “Ramstein Group” without a legal framework, but rather moderate the military aid of all member countries.

They need to understand how and to what extent they will provide assistance to Ukraine. We have bilateral aid agreements with these countries, as well as collective agreements, and it would be beneficial for NATO to take on the role of a key moderator. That would be a key outcome for Ukraine.

NATO should also declare that no one outside NATO will determine the expansion of the Alliance or infringe on the sovereign rights of countries wishing to be part of collective security.

Trump and the potential end of US aid to Ukraine

Western media are increasingly echoing the Trump team’s position on the war in Ukraine. According to Politico, Trump is discussing with Putin which parts of the occupied territories Russia can keep. Bloomberg reports that Trump will threaten to cut off military supplies to kyiv if it refuses to negotiate.

Does kyiv feel increased pressure from its team?

“I don’t see a concrete position from Trump yet. The candidates, both Democrats and Republicans, are using confrontational rhetoric. In this discussion, everything looks like an ultimatum. But it’s not a real plan.”

President Zelensky has clearly stated: If anyone has a real plan – any candidate, including Trump – we would like to hear it. If it actually involves Ukraine losing its sovereignty and territories, we will react differently.

If anyone thinks that leaving Ukraine alone with a consortium of “Russia, North Korea and Iran” will solve all the world’s problems, he is wrong.

A candidate who claims that war can be ended by encouraging the aggressor and giving it the territories of the victim country should follow this logic to the end.

This implies that any aggressor can seize a part of the territory of any country, kill a large number of its citizens and suffer no consequences.

Moreover, I doubt that it will even be possible to stop aid to Ukraine.

The Republican Party in Congress and the Senate clearly understands the nature of this war and is fully prepared to vote on measures that will unlock additional military aid. The delay of the last few months is due to internal political discussions.

Moreover, the Republican Party is aware of all the risks that I have already mentioned. In terms of reputation, it would be a failure for the United States.

Furthermore, the increase in military production in European countries should not be underestimated.

The volumes of weapons that European countries will supply, together with the military production being restored in Ukraine, will allow to meet many operational and tactical tasks at a high level.

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The project “Let’s Help” (launched by Meduza, Dozhd and the Support Service) helps Ukrainian civilians affected by the war. Take part in the fundraiser. All money collected in the coming days will be donated to the children’s hospital “Okhmatdyt” in kyiv.