Opinion | The West's fragmented geopolitics offer little respite for Hong Kong

In the late 20th and early 21st centuries, globalization has fostered the interconnectedness and interdependence of the world’s economies, cultures and populations, leading to significant growth and proliferation.

But since 2010, escalating geopolitical tensions between major powers, trade conflicts and rising nationalism have overshadowed the progress of globalization, pushing countries toward greater introspection.

Covid-19 has exposed the vulnerabilities The interconnectedness of our global systems is disrupting supply chains and travel. The world has become more fragmented, with a significant slowdown in cross-border flows, including of goods, services and capital, compared to the rapid growth seen in previous decades.

Geopolitical competition and the shift away from globalization have compounded the problem, contributing to this fragmentation, with countries and regions focusing more on protecting their interests than on pursuing deeper global integration.

Geopolitical fragmentation is particularly relevant in light of recent and upcoming elections in several countries. Many people are wondering whether certain election results will affect Hong Kong and whether changes in government will lead to a different direction in their foreign policy.

In last week’s UK elections we saw the Labour Party win massivelyushering in the departure of a Conservative Party that had been in power for 14 years. But voter turnout was low and the remarkable results achieved by the smaller political parties suggest that voters’ main ambition was to oust the Conservatives, rather than expressing broad support for a new Labour government, which has little new to offer except higher moral standards and a more ethical approach to governing a country that has declined under Conservative rule and Brexit.

Labour Party leader Keir Starmer addresses the nation after his general election victory, outside 10 Downing Street in London on July 5, a day after Britain held a general election. Starmer became Britain’s new prime minister, as his centre-left party swept to a landslide victory, ending 14 years of right-wing Conservative rule. Photo: AFP — Labour Party leader Keir Starmer addresses the nation after his general election victory, outside 10 Downing Street in London on July 5, a day after the British general election. Starmer became the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as his centre-left party won a landslide victory, ending 14 years of rule by the right-wing Conservatives. Photo: AFP

In the United States, the next presidential election is expected to come down to a handful of votes. Undecided StatesIn traditionally Democratic and Republican states, voter preferences are unlikely to change significantly.

Within the Democratic Party and among the electorate, there is growing concern about the mental faculties of the president and the possibility of running for re-election. Key states will be decisive for the outcome of the elections. The uncertainty lies in the participation of undecided voters at the polls.

In France, the legislative elections resulted in a parliament without absolute majorityno party or bloc won an absolute majority. This was a surprise, as projections had predicted a better performance by the far-right National Rally party. Instead, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition surged to the top, winning 188 seats, a remarkable feat considering the alliance was formed only last month to prevent the far right from taking power.

The fragmented election result means France faces political uncertainty and impasse at a time when many are grappling with issues such as high inflation and concerns about immigration. The surprising strength of the left-wing coalition has upended the political landscape, setting the stage for a prolonged period of uncertainty and negotiation before a stable government can emerge. The path forward for France is far from clear.

In recent years, far-right European political parties have become most importantoften on platforms that emphasize anti-immigrant policies and their opposition to globalism and deeper European integration. Their rhetoric and proposals have stoked fears and resentment, contributing to a more polarized political landscape and making compromise and consensus-building more difficult.

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Could a far-right shift in the European Parliament change its relationship with China?

According to the independent London-based policy institute Chatham House, “centrist parties have attempted to adopt far-right narratives on immigration, both domestically and at the European level, in the hope of retaining voters who might otherwise consider defecting to far-right parties.”

The ability of European Union members to navigate this political landscape and maintain democratic stability poses a complex set of challenges for the future of Europe.

From Hong Kong’s perspective, geopolitical challenges will persist with several of the city’s traditional trading partners. The situation is arguably the most difficult in recent years; international business sentiment toward Hong Kong and mainland China remains very slowMany are concerned about China’s economy and the pace of political reforms.

The result of the Communist Party third plenum next week will be paramount. It will determine the direction of policy and potentially calm markets, an issue of the utmost importance to many in the business world.

Hong Kong has long benefited from China’s growth. But the need for long-overdue reforms to revive the local economy and deliver on a positive vision has never been more pressing.

Bernard Chan is a Hong Kong businessman And former President of the Executive Council