Who is JD Vance? Trump's VP pick is not ready to be VP

Christopher Devine
| Guest columnist

Christopher J. Devine is an associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton. He is the author of “Do Running Mates Matter? The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections” (with Kyle C. Kopko) and “I’m Here to Ask for Your Vote: How Presidential Campaign Visits Influence Voters.”

Ohioans know J.D. Vance as their junior United States senator. After being chosen as former President Donald Trump’s running mate today, Americans may soon know Vance as their vice president.

What will Americans think of JD Vance?

You might expect Americans to already be familiar with him. Vance rose to fame as the author of “Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis,” a 2016 bestseller that was later adapted into a Netflix film.

Since then, he has become a ubiquitous presence in the media — first as a “Never Trump” Republican in 2016, then as a diehard Trump loyalist, able and willing to articulate the MAGA message on outlets ranging from far-right podcasts to Sunday talk shows.

Vance won a high-profile 2022 Senate race in a competitive Republican primary with Trump’s support.

America Doesn’t Know JD Vance

Yet polls show that many Americans have never heard of Vance or have no opinion about him — including two-thirds of voters in swing states. Believe it or not, that’s pretty typical of recent vice presidential candidates.

5 Cartoons About Trump’s Vice President: JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, Doug Burgum? 5 editorial cartoons on Trump’s choice of vice president.

For example, only 39% of Americans expressed an opinion about Mike Pence and Tim Kaine after they were announced as running mates for Trump and Hillary Clinton, respectively, in 2016.

That’s why Vance’s “introduction” to the vice presidency — from Wednesday’s announcement and convention speech to upcoming campaign events and media interviews — will be so important. Many voters are now forming their first impressions of the Middletown native.

And that could make the difference in November.

Vance fails to convince voters

As a political scientist who studies vice presidential candidates, I rely on data from past elections. That data allows me to draw two important conclusions about Vance’s candidacy.

First, Vance will have limited appeal to voters outside the Republican base. That’s partly because Vance often behaves like a hysterical partisan—for example, by claiming that the Biden campaign was “directly” responsible for Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump, before the facts about the shooter were known.

Attention Vance: Vance, Donalds and Carson have credibility issues. Trump should be wary.

Another factor is the growing unpopularity of vice presidential candidates in recent years.

In 2020, Pence and Kamala Harris were rated more negatively, on a 100-point scale, than all but one of their respective parties’ running mates since 1968. Partisan opponents rated Pence and Harris 15 points lower than their predecessors. But the same candidates received the highest ratings ever from members of their own parties.

In this polarized political climate, running mates tend to be wildly popular with their coreligionists, despised by their opponents and coldly received by independents. Vance can be expected to do the same.

Vance could hurt Trump

Second, Vance probably won’t help Trump win — and might even cost him votes.

My book with Kyle C. Kopko, “Do Running Mates Matter?” shows that vice presidential candidates have very little direct influence on voters, even those who come from the same state or belong to the same demographic group.

For example, Vance’s choice is unlikely to win Trump votes in Ohio or among Catholics. In fact, running mates have mostly indirect effects, by influencing voters’ perceptions of the presidential candidate.

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This was evident in 2008. Voters who doubted Sarah Palin’s ability to become president also doubted John McCain’s judgment and, as a result, were less likely to support him.

Conversely, voters’ confidence in Joe Biden’s qualifications strengthened perceptions of Barack Obama’s judgment and earned him additional votes.

Vance is not up to the task

JD Vance is the least qualified vice presidential candidate in modern history. First elected to public office in late 2022, he only began serving in the US Senate in January of last year.

Voters are unlikely to believe that Vance, a 39-year-old senator, is ready to take over the vice presidency, or — with an assassination attempt on Trump, 78, still fresh in their minds — perhaps even the presidency, in just six months.

They will know that Trump had far more credible options, including Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Doug Burgum, and will wonder why those men were passed over in favor of Vance.

Voters might conclude that Trump, in a second term, will focus not on implementing his legislative agenda or advancing the national interest, but on pursuing “retaliation” against his opponents, with a proven loyalist at his side who would, for example, have the “courage” to do what former Vice President Mike Pence would not do on January 6, 2021.

That may please Trump, but it is unlikely to please voters, many of whom will see their worst fears about the former president confirmed by the selection of Vance.