Amazon puts pieces in place to offer satellite internet service

After years of delay, in October 2023 Amazon (Amazon -0.34%) Amazon has taken its first steps toward offering its own satellite internet service. Competing with SpaceX’s Starlink, Amazon has launched two prototype Kuipersats into orbit to begin testing. Last month, the company announced its next step in the process and…

Surprise! There will be another delay.

An-ti-ci-pation, Amazon makes us wait

Late last year, shortly after launching its test satellites, Amazon boasted that it could launch operational satellites in the first half of 2024, and then quickly open the service to beta users that same year. That was already a pretty ambitious goal. As I noted at the time, SpaceX itself needed 15 months to test its Starlinks prototype before moving to mass production — and then took 17. more months to build and launch enough satellites to begin offering a beta service.

That’s a total of 32 months, while Amazon promises a beta service about a year after testing begins.

And now Amazon has hit a new bump in the road to space. Those satellite launches that were supposed to begin in early 2024? They haven’t happened yet. And as SpaceNews reported last month, Amazon has now pushed back the delivery of its first batch of operational Kuipersats to late summer, and has pushed back all launches to late 2024.

New schedule?

It’s not yet clear exactly when Amazon will begin launching its Project Kuiper satellites — and Amazon isn’t saying. NextSpaceFlight.com, however, currently has four Kuiper missions scheduled for unspecified dates in the fourth quarter of 2024 — two launches using ABL Space Systems’ RS1 rockets (which have never flown before), one using Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket (eight years in development, and Also never flew) and one with a United Launch Alliance Atlas V (the most reliable option).

Subsequently, Amazon has scheduled three launches for the second quarter of 2025 (all using SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets)… but oddly enough, zero launches planned for the first quarter of 2025!

This could be a problem for two reasons.

First and foremost, because Amazon can’t actually launch a beta version of its Kuiper internet service until it has a substantial number of satellites in orbit. How a lot It’s unclear exactly how many satellites Amazon will need. SpaceX, for example, put 1,000 satellites into orbit before announcing its own “beta.” But it’s unclear how many launches Amazon will need to make to reach that goal.

Amazon says each rocket launch will carry “dozens” of satellites. But even assuming payload sizes similar to SpaceX’s Starlink flights (which initially carried about 50 satellites per launch), that implies Amazon could be 20 rocket launches away from its own “beta.” The four launches planned for later this year likely won’t do the trick.

Time is running out for Amazon

But that’s not Amazon’s only problem. Amazon says Project Kuiper requires a total of 3,236 satellites to complete, and based on that number, the Federal Communications Commission has issued the company a license on the condition that it put at least half of those satellites—about 1,600—into orbit by July 2026. While Amazon has done a good job of lining up operators to accomplish the task—92 separate launches planned over a five-year period—it’s already July 2024.

Amazon now has just two years left to complete half of its five-year launches.

And it hasn’t even started yet.

The only thing going right for Amazon’s Kuiper Project

So that’s the bad news. But there’s also some good news for Amazon and its ambitions in the space internet.

In a statement posted last month on its About Amazon blog, Amazon boasted that it had “accelerated satellite production and testing” at its new 170,000-square-foot facility in Kirkland, Washington. Encouragingly, the company said the facility would eventually produce five satellites per day. Assuming around-the-clock production, that means the facility should be able to produce more than 1,800 satellites per year, and in fact produce the 3,236 satellites needed to build Project Kuiper in less than two years.

Ultimately, this lends credence to Amazon’s claim that “we remain on track to begin offering services to customers next year.” The satellites will be ready. The only question now is how quickly Amazon’s space contractors will be able to launch them — and how flexible the FCC will be in changing the terms of Amazon’s license when it (presumably) misses its deadline.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.