Sinwar warned Israel of escalating violence weeks before October 7 attack

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar sent a message to senior Israeli officials a few weeks before October 7, according to a report by N12 diplomatic correspondent Yaron Avraham.

A few weeks before October 7, Sinwar had sent a message to Israel warning of potential prison unrest and hostage problems. The assessment suggested that the message was not a warning about prison riots, but focused on hostages and missing persons.

The message was classified as “sensitive” and was shared only with a select few within the political and security ranks. The entire security apparatus, including the Shin Bet, the IDF and the Mossad, held several discussions on the subject. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were briefed and appear to have actively participated in these discussions.

Sinwar’s message hints at developments regarding hostages

Sinwar’s message was thought to refer to developments regarding hostages and missing persons rather than an imminent attack. The prevailing idea was that Sinwar wanted to address the case of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli researcher kidnapped in Iraq, and that he would demand the release of many terrorists in exchange for her release.

Due to the sensitivity of the information, this message was accessible only to a very small circle and was classified as a defense secret. Not all senior officials in the Israeli army and military intelligence had access to this information, so they could not connect Sinwar’s warning to other possible indicators.

Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar (L) speaks with his leader Ismail Haniyeh (C) at the Rafah border crossing in the southern Gaza Strip in 2017. Is it possible for Israel to get its hands on Sinwar? (credit: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/REUTERS)

The reason for Sinwar’s message remains unclear, and even intelligence documents recovered after October 7 do not provide a definitive answer. Some believe that Sinwar was running both channels simultaneously: planning the October 7 attack while trying to maximize negotiations. During this period, negotiations were underway involving Hadar Goldin, Oron Shaul, Avera Mengistu, and Hisham al-Sayed.

Other sources raise another possibility, although almost implausible, that Sinwar sent the secret message because of disagreements with Mohammed Deif over the timing of the attack. This implies that Sinwar may have been trying to induce Israel to take steps to delay the planned Hamas attack, perhaps to achieve better coordination with Hezbollah.