UFC Cage Locks: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 panel predictions

Ahead of every UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by browsing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg accumulator bet, plus an additional bet on the favourite, the underdog and the dart throw.

The heavyweight division will be in the spotlight on Saturday at the Apex as No. 8 ranked contender Marcin Tybura will look to retain his spot in the rankings when he takes on No. 9 ranked Serghei Spivac in a rematch 4.5 years in the making.

Tybura defeated Spivac in their meeting in February 2020, when Spivac was still young in his career and still growing. Tybura is 7-2 since that fight, while Spivac is 6-2 since then and is looking to bounce back from a loss in his last appearance.

Two fights were pulled from the midweek card, two bouts underwent short-notice opponent changes and three fighters were out of contention at Friday’s weigh-ins.

Despite the three failures, all of which resulted in the fighters losing a percentage of their purse, the event is expected to go ahead with 10 fights.

Fight order and full predictions below:

MAIN MAP

— Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac

— Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal

— Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov

— Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le

– Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler

– Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou

PRELIMINARY MAP

– Karol Rosa vs Pannie Kianzad

— Jhonata Diniz vs Karl Williams

— Youssef Zalal vs. Jarno Errens

— Stéphanie Luciano vs. Talita Alencar

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CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do you think is the safest bet on the card? Everyone will choose their “lock” of the week to set up a “three-headed combination bet”.

Aaron: Santos vs. Chandler Over 1.5 Rounds -599 (Betway)

Despite being the heaviest (active) women’s division in the UFC, neither Santos nor Chandler have proven to be powerful finishers and I think it’s unlikely we’ll see a finish in this fight. If there is a finish, I expect it to be late, so I firmly believe this fight will go midway through the second round.

And: Luciano vs Alencar on 1.5 -450 (Betway)

A balanced strawweight fight between two familiar opponents? This one has the scores well in hand in my opinion. I’m sure it will go 1.5 rounds in what should be the easiest leg of this accumulator.

Microphone: Danny Barlow -360 (BetMGM)

The Voice of Reason: Mike, you missed another bet last week. Shouldn’t you choose a safer bet than picking a fighter who missed his workout, is coming off a broken arm, and has to face a tough newcomer on short notice?

Microphone: Yeah…but Danny Barlow is awesome.

Three-headed Monster Combo Bet Odds: -122 (to win $82.24)
2024 record: 12-14 (current streak: 1 loss)
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: -$265.10

OUR FAVORITE FAVORITE

Which favorite with odds below -200 do we have the most confidence in?

Aaron: Yana Santos -138 (Betway)

Aside from the Santos-Chandler fight going into the later rounds, I expect Santos to win this fight if it does. Santos will have a distinct speed advantage and Chandler doesn’t have the kind of long-range weapons that have given Santos trouble in the past. I expect Santos’ speed and accuracy along with his versatility to win this fight more often than not.

And: Yana Santos -138 (Betway)

I agree with Aaron on this. I’m not comfortable with other favorites on this card meeting the criteria this week.

Microphone: Serghei Spivac -162 (DraftKings)

Maybe I’m being a jerk here, considering how one-sided his first fight against Tybura was, and the fact that Spivac landed 99 fewer punches than Ciryl Gane before getting knocked out in his last fight, but I just think Spivac has closed the gap significantly in terms of skill since the first fight. There’s a reason he’s the chalk pick here and not the more experienced fighter coming off a win and holding a previous dominant win over his opponent. Hopefully Spivac is in shape for a five-round fight.

Aaron’s favorite record: 15-11
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: -$112.18

Dan’s favorite record: 18-8
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: +$343.63.

Mike’s favorite record: 16-10
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: +$88.15

THE HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the map do we think will have their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Marcin Tybura +140 (Betway)

The line for this main event puzzles me because the last time these two met, Tybura won 30-27 on two scorecards. While Spivac has improved since then, I don’t think Tybura has regressed enough to the point where he’s an underdog against a fighter he soundly beat in their last meeting. I expect this fight to go into the late rounds and for Tybura to use his grappling advantage to wear Spivac down and find either a late finish or a decision victory.

And: Jhonata Diniz +178 (Bodog)

I think Diniz is going to be a problem in the heavyweight division. Karl Williams will be his toughest opponent so far, but Diniz’s punching power could be the difference here. If he can avoid getting stuck with Williams for three rounds, there could be an upset here.

Microphone: Jhonata Diniz +178 (Bodog)

Williams’ chances of winning are huge, but I don’t like the chalky board and Diniz has some high-level striking. Hopefully his defensive grappling has improved enough to give him a few opportunities each round to deal damage. The more clinches there are, the less likely Diniz is to emerge victorious.

Aaron’s record as an underdog: 9-17
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: -$425

Dan’s record as an underdog: 7-19
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: -$1,055

Mike’s record as an underdog: 10-16
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: -$363

DART THROWING

What is a long term bet with odds of +500 or more that we like?

Aaron: Zalal by KO/TKO +800 (BetOnline)

Although Zalal hasn’t won many of his fights by KO, he has shown a lot of progress on the feet and I also think that if he takes this fight to the ground he will be guaranteed a KO. He is the heavy favorite against Jarno Errens and I have noticed a trend where heavy favorites have won fights by a less likely method because they have a very large overall advantage. That could very well be the case here.

And: Barlow vs. Veretennikov ends in round 3 +540 (BetRivers)

Someone is probably going to get knocked out in this match, but who says it can’t go all the way to the third round? With odds of +540, it’s worth a try.

Microphone: Danny Barlow KO/TKO and round 2 +550 (BetRivers)

Danny B doubled his lead and said he improved to 9-0 after finding his rhythm in the second period. This one should end early.

Aaron’s dart throwing record: 4-21-1
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: $0

Dan’s Dart Throwing Record: 1-25
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: -$1,800

Mike’s dart throwing record: 5-20-1
2024 Total Winnings on $100 Bets: +$1,850

(The above betting odds are subject to change at various times throughout the week and are subject to change prior to the fights)