3rd best day for rates in over a year

While daily changes in mortgage rates have been modest recently, the slow and steady improvement has brought the average 30-year fixed rate near the lowest levels in over a year. With the exception of 2 days earlier this month, rates are as low as they have been since May 2023. There were no significant sources of inspiration for today’s market movement, although there was some volatility around the release of updated payroll numbers for extremely old labor market data. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is the closest thing to a “definitive answer” to the questions that are asked each month about the number of jobs in the U.S. economy. While it has much broader coverage than the monthly jobs report, it sacrifices timeliness. Today’s revisions covered the period from April 2023 to March 2024—old news when it comes to a financial market looking for real-time indications of labor market easing. Still, some market participants believe that a downward revision, even if outdated, does not hurt the interest rate case. That said, it’s the most recent economic data that will really determine the dynamics between now and the Fed’s meeting in about a month.