Moscow tries to convince Russians to accept Ukraine incursion as 'new normal'

The Kremlin is trying to indoctrinate Russians into accepting the Ukrainian military presence in the Kursk region as the “new normal,” a report says.

Unnamed Russian government sources close to the Russian presidential administration told independent Russian media outlet Meduza that the Kremlin is using propaganda to persuade the Russians to delay the recapture of the Kursk region until an “inevitable” Ukrainian defeat in eastern Ukraine, according to a translation by the Institute for the Study of War.

Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive in Russia’s Kursk region on August 6, capturing Russian forces off guard and clinging 386 miles of territory in a few days.

Ukrainian military chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces were 35 kilometers from Russia’s Kursk region.

Russia struggled to respond quickly and effectively to the attack, partly because of its complex military structures and a lack of emergency plans.

Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal reported that a Russian general had disbanded a group tasked with protecting the Kursk borders months before Ukraine’s surprise incursion, citing an unnamed Russian security official, leaving the border region vulnerable.

To downplay the significance of the Ukrainian incursion — now in its third week — the Kremlin may be trying to weaponize Russian state media coverage of its months-long offensive in eastern Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

TV channels are busy presenting Russia’s advances around the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk as huge victories while actively contrasting Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk as a limited operation, he said.

This could be a way for the Kremlin to buy time and space before reacting to the Ukrainian incursion, he adds.

In an update Sunday, ISW said Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command are likely prioritizing their offensive operations in eastern Ukraine because they view winning the war of attrition against Ukraine as a strategic priority.

But in the past two weeks, Ukraine says its forces in Kursk have captured as much territory as Russia This year, destroyed at least two bridges, and consolidate their hold on the region.

While the incursion appears to be progressing, it could easily turn against Ukraine.

A Ukrainian commander told the The Financial Times This week, Russian troops advanced in eastern Ukraine, partly using ammunition diverted to military operations in Kursk, forcing its soldiers to ration shells.

But the main risk Ukraine faces now is manpower, according to Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute.

If Ukrainian forces try to hold Kursk in the long term, they will expand the front line of the fight, he told Business Insider on Tuesday.

“It raises the stakes and may cause them to commit beyond a sustainable position,” he said.