Democrats are on a roll, but victory is far from assured

Kamala Harris took the stage at the Democratic convention on Thursday night and told Americans they had a “precious and fleeting opportunity” before them: to endorse her candidacy and put behind them the extraordinary period since Donald Trump entered the political arena nine years ago.

His 40-minute speech wasn’t exactly the fiery speech the Obamas had delivered earlier in the week, but the euphoria and confidence in the arena was palpable.

With the support of high-profile celebrities and a widespread sense among Democrats that they are embarking on a new chapter, the party faithful have not been this enthusiastic since Barack Obama’s first presidential campaign in 2008.

The jubilation among delegates in Chicago is a combination of relief at not having to run in the race with Joe Biden, a candidate whose advanced age was a major handicap, and joy at how easily Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, have taken their places at the top of the ticket.

But behind the scenes, party strategists worry that Democratic voters and activists — who will have to go out, knock on doors and convince friends and family to turn out to vote on Nov. 5 — will get carried away.

Opinion polls have moved in their favor in the weeks since President Biden left office, but the race remains very close. It will also be decided in a handful of states: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina.

In most of these regions, it appears that one candidate or the other has a good chance of winning. And if the last six weeks are any indication, the political dynamics could change rapidly again in the remaining 70 days.

Jim Messina, a veteran Democratic strategist who ran Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign, told the BBC’s Americast podcast that any certainty that Democrats are on the path to victory is misplaced.

“Since she entered the race, Kamala Harris has had the best 30 days in American politics that I’ve seen in a very long time,” he said. “But she’s still tied (in the polls). The Democrats are up five points to tie. So it’s still a tight race with 75 days to go.”

The mood may have reached fever pitch here last night, but a tight race shows that Democrats still have a lot of work to do if they want to be sure of winning the White House.

Trump appears to be struggling to figure out how to campaign against Harris. He doesn’t seem to know what line of attack to take and hasn’t even chosen one of his usual nicknames yet.

A prominent Democratic strategist told me that he thinks Trump will soon figure out how to define Ms. Harris in a way that best serves his campaign, because that is his great political skill. And when he does, this election will become much harder for Ms. Harris.

Despite all the good humor and optimism emanating from the congress scene, warnings have also been issued.

In her speech Tuesday night, Michelle Obama warned that the election would be extremely close. “We must vote in numbers that erase all doubt,” she told the crowd. “We must crush any attempt to suppress us.”

Her husband Barack Obama reiterated his call with a similar exhortation, in what amounted to a one-two punch intended to motivate the thousands in the arena to take to the streets when they return to their hometowns across the country.

“It’s up to all of us to fight for the America we believe in,” the former president said. “And make no mistake, it will be a fight.”

Candidates running in the key states that will decide the outcome of this election know full well how much work remains to be done.

“I’ve been telling Democrats everywhere I’ve gone this week, ‘Don’t drug yourself with your own stash and don’t think everyone else is as energetic as you are,’” Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is in a tight Senate race in Michigan, told Politico.

At the convention, delegates, visibly encouraged by the events of this week, appeared to have taken the Obamas’ message to heart.

Cameron Landin, a 21-year-old from Georgia, a key Southern state won by Democrats in the last election for the first time in 28 years, said he knew the victory could not be taken for granted.

“I truly believe Kamala Harris is going to win,” he said hours before Harris took the stage. “That doesn’t mean I’m not nervous.”

The regional organizer for the city of Savannah said people like him would focus on one thing: increasing turnout.

“That means people have to work 60-plus hours a week, seven days a week to organize. That means volunteers are stepping up to do telemarketing, calling voters, going door to door.”

“That’s what’s going to win us,” he said, pointing to the crowd of delegates holding signs for Harris and Walz. “The people on the ground.”

Nevada Democratic Rep. Susie Lee, who represents a district that includes part of Las Vegas, said she had no illusions that the election would be extremely competitive, especially in her swing state.

“It’s not a foregone conclusion,” she said. Some districts in Nevada, she said, could be decided by as few as 50 to 100 votes. “Clearly we need to mobilize people and get them out to vote.”

“But I’m telling you, I think people are tired of Donald Trump,” the congresswoman said. “There’s a clear choice between Harris and Trump. I think people see that.”

Millions of voters tuned in to watch the Democrats’ political festival in Chicago – more than 20 million viewers tuned in for each of the first three nights.

The Harris-Walz team should certainly see another surge in the polls after this week. But that’s what you’d expect after any party convention.

The question will be whether the momentum they are riding will last, especially as the country learns more about Harris, who has so far avoided tough media interviews and released few details about her policies.

Trump has a hold on nearly half the country. And they know him well from running three successive presidential campaigns.

Democrats can certainly win this election, but they will have their work cut out for them.

Additional reporting by Bernd Debusmann Jr.