Why Nigel Farage and Reform UK could be just what the Tories need | Politics

Sorry, dear Tories, but Labour’s honeymoon period is not over yet, at least if the polls are to be believed.

To be fair, the July 4 election was more likely to be lost by the Conservatives than won by Labour, who managed to secure only a third of the vote.

Yet since polling day, support for Labour nationally has held steady, hovering around 33%, although a recent poll puts it down to 30% (shock horror!).

By contrast, the Conservatives, whose vote share collapsed on July 4 to just under 24%, have remained at that level or fallen in the weeks since.

So it’s no surprise who has benefited? It’s Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which has been professionalising and fundraising after winning over 14% of the vote on election day.

Since 4 July, support for Reform UK has increased further, now reaching 20% nationally. This means that the gap between Reform and the Conservatives, which was already narrowing, has narrowed further.

In all fairness, the Conservatives are currently leaderless. Once the Conservative beauty contest is over, national support for the party could increase and solidify again.

Yet it doesn’t help that the Conservative leadership candidates enjoy low brand awareness, unlike Nigel Farage, whose pot-bellied quality nevertheless guarantees airtime, visibility and brand recognition.

Once the leadership race is over, that could change as the next opposition leader begins to receive media coverage and scrutiny. But there is no escaping the feeling that given the Conservatives’ failures over the past five years, it will take more than a change of leader to turn the party around.

The British Reform Party, of course, has its own challenge. If, as polls show, support for Labour holds, Reform, which often rivals Labour in coastal and post-industrial areas, may struggle to see its growing vote share translate into seats.

It is true that the first-past-the-post system in Britain is extremely unfair (especially to small and rebel parties), but Labour has no interest in changing it given the results of 4th July, and ultimately power currently lies in the party’s hands.

This may then require Reform UK to work with whoever leads the Conservative Party at the next election, while the Conservatives may find themselves having to adapt to Reform UK to win back seats in rural and semi-rural areas (despite the simultaneous need to win back more Liberal votes in the Blue Wall).

Of course, there is still a long way to go. For now, Reform UK and the Tories are parking their tanks on their respective lawns and engaging in a battle of ideas to win the hearts and souls of the British centre-right.

But, like it or not, no one benefits more from this right-wing civil war than Labour, so – one way or another – one side must prevail or a compromise (perhaps even a merger or takeover) must take place.

The Conservative leadership candidates may want to distance themselves from Farage, but they are likely to have to reckon with the fact that Reform is eating into the Conservative vote share, while Reform must adapt to the harsh realities of the British electoral system.

Assuming that neither Reform UK nor the Conservatives want Keir to stay in 10 Downing Street for ten years, then some sort of deal between the two parties of the British centre-right might be necessary, despite the gritted teeth and current enmity.