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Israeli war on Lebanon has begun – but major questions remain (ANALYSIS)

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Israeli war on Lebanon has begun – but major questions remain (ANALYSIS)

Israeli war on Lebanon has begun – but major questions remain (ANALYSIS)

By the editors of the Palestine Chronicle

The answers to these and other questions will determine the next chapter of the war and the future of the Middle East.

The initial toll from the latest Israeli aggression against Lebanon on Friday is 12 dead and 66 injured, nine of them in critical condition.

She is expected to grow.

Explosions rocked the Lebanese capital Beirut on Friday afternoon when an Israeli drone targeted a residential building in the city’s southern suburbs.

Lebanese media, including Al-Mayadeen, said four missiles were used in the Israeli attack.

The destruction in Beirut follows several dramatic days in Lebanon, where thousands of communications devices – mainly pagers and walkie-talkies – exploded on two consecutive days, but at exactly the same time across the country.

“In the narrowest circle” – Nasrallah sends message to Israel after terrorist attacks

In a speech Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the Lebanese resistance’s response will be “in what you see, not in what you hear” and that the resistance will target Israel’s “narrowest circle.”

The speech, however, was a response to the dozens of Lebanese killed and thousands injured following the explosion of communications devices by Israeli intelligence services over the previous two days.

Israel, however, did not wait for Hezbollah’s response and once again took the initiative to attack Beirut.

The Israeli military claims to have killed Ibrahim Aqil, Hezbollah’s top operations commander, and many other senior leaders of Radwan’s fighting forces.

(Click here (for more on Hezbollah’s military capabilities and Radwan’s forces.)

The Israeli message is clear: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has presented Hezbollah with only two options: either lower its political ceiling by moving away from Gaza, or prepare for all-out war.

How powerful is Lebanese Hezbollah and why does it exist?

But why did Netanyahu decide to escalate after nearly a year of military conflict on the border between Lebanon and Israel?

The answer lies in Gaza.

It is clear that Netanyahu has come to the conclusion that there can be no military victory in the Gaza Strip. To divert attention from his failures on the southern front, he has decided to climb an even higher tree: the war in Lebanon.

It is also possible that Netanyahu feels that Iran – Hezbollah’s main backer – is politically vulnerable in the sense that it is trying to avoid a regional conflict at all costs.

Indeed, Netanyahu attempted to draw Iran into a war that would naturally involve its biggest backer, the United States, by assassinating Hamas’s top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on July 31.

Haniyeh’s assassination was followed by a major military buildup by Washington in the region, in anticipation of an Iranian response.

The response has not yet come and several US Navy aircraft carriers and destroyers have already left the region.

Netanyahu then turned his attention to Lebanon.

Drone attack destroys residential building in Beirut – Five children among victims

The pager massacre of September 17-18 should have marked the beginning of the war. In fact, it could have.

However, by not waiting for a response from Hezbollah, as was the case after Israel’s assassination of the group’s top commander, Fuad Shukr, on July 30, Israel wanted to send a message that the old “rules of engagement” had been irreparably violated.

Hezbollah will of course react. But important questions remain:

With Israel crossing all red lines in its war against Hezbollah, how will the group respond to Israel’s bloody escalation?

Hint: By not reacting, and quickly, Israel will be encouraged to hit Lebanon even harder.

Furthermore, will the “axis of resistance” get involved in a coordinated response, or will retaliation be left to Hezbollah alone?

Hint: A coordinated response would pose a much greater challenge to Israel and would disorient the IDF on all fronts.

And finally, how will Iran proceed now that Israel has decided to go to war in Lebanon?

Hint: If Iran does not take greater initiative, its status and power in the region will certainly be compromised.

The answers to these and other questions will determine the next chapter of the war and the future of the Middle East.

(The Chronicle of Palestine)