NFL Picks, Week 5 Predictions: Bills edge Texans, Cowboys beat Steelers in road win

The NFL has 13 teams with a 2-2 record after four weeks, reflecting the parity of the playoff race heading into Week 5.

In fact, there’s only one matchup between teams with winning records this week, and it’s a good matchup. The Bills meet the Texans in a 3-1 showdown of AFC hopefuls. The Bills are coming off a 35-10 loss to the Ravens, and the Texans are looking to build on a 24-20 win against the Jaguars.

Of course, Stefon Diggs will be the center of attention in this game. The Texans receiver spent four seasons with the Bills. He has three touchdowns in four games with Houston, and his connection with second-year quarterback CJ Stroud is solid.

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Is Houston a real contender outside of the AFC South? Or are the Bills, led by quarterback Josh Allen, ready to bounce back on the road?

The Week 5 schedule also includes a solid NFC South matchup between Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and Pittsburgh and Dallas meet Sunday night in an NFL blue-blood matchup that brings back memories of Super Bowls from the distant past. The AFC North battle between the Bengals and Ravens will also be fun.

Each week we will select NFL games straight and against the spread. An overview of our results this season:

• Directly: 31-17 (8-6 in week 4)
• Against the spread: 34-25-3 (10-3-1 in Week 4)

Here are our picks for week 5:

NFL Picks, Week 5 Predictions

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime

This should be an entertaining Thursday night matchup. The Buccaneers have been great around Baker Mayfield, who ranks fourth in the NFL in passer rating (106.9). Can the Falcons, who have four sacks this season, put enough pressure on Mayfield to force some turnovers? Tampa Bay has won three of the last four meetings in Atlanta. The Falcons’ last three games have been decided by a combined eight points.

Take: Buccaneers 26, Falcons 21

MORE: Tom Brady hits back at Baker Mayfield for ‘joy’ comment

• New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network

The Vikings are familiar with Aaron Rodgers from his time with the Packers, and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Sam Darnold has 11 touchdowns and three interceptions, and he’s up against the NFL’s pass defense (128.0 pg). Who wins this match between Justin Jefferson and Sauce Gardner? Rodgers is coming off his worst game of the season, but New York has a chance to pull off an upset here. The Vikings remain the safe pick as long as Darnold stays hot.

Take: Vikings 20, Jets 17

MORE: Sam Darnold plays like MVP before Jets game | Penalties and poor pass protection doom Jets against Broncos

• Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

Caleb Williams is coming off his best performance, and the Bears will likely continue the high-percentage passing game that resulted in a 106.6 QB rating in Week 4. The Panthers are 2-8-1 against the spread as road underdogs, and they’re allowing a league-high 32.3 points per game. Andy Dalton has played well in two starts, and he’ll have to do it again in his second start against an old team.

Take: Bears 27, Panthers 24

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• Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

The Bengals have won three of the last four home games, but a defense that has allowed 145.5 yards per game will be a problem against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Joe Burrow got back on track last week, and he is one of five NFL quarterbacks with a completion percentage of 70 percent or better this season. That will pay off with receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. This could very quickly turn into a shootout. If that happens, the Bengals will have a chance to earn their first home win.

Take: Bengals 31, Ravens 28

MORE: Derrick Henry nearly sets NFL record against Bills | Henry’s speed impresses on 87-yard TD run

• Miami Dolphins (-1) vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

The Patriots are sticking with Jacoby Brissett, who hasn’t been able to generate much offense for a team that’s averaging a league-low 13 points per game. Miami turned to Tyler Huntley to revive an offense that struggled without Tua Tagovailoa (lead). It will be a defensive struggle, and we will face the team with a little more offensive firepower, even after a short week. The Dolphins have won two of the last three meetings in New England.

Take: Dolphins 20, Patriots 15

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• Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

Two franchises with different trajectories meet here. The Browns are falling fast. Deshaun Watson had a league-high 19 sacks. Washington rookie Jayden Daniels leads the NFL with an incredible 82.1 percent completion percentage. The matchup with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury works, and it’s up to Myles Garrett and a Cleveland defense to keep Daniels off balance. This line could get closer to playing time. The Commanders have also reached the OVER in three straight games. Cleveland will be a trendy pick, but we’ll stick with the home team.

Take: Commanders 29, Browns 21

MORE: Did the Bears make a mistake passing on Jayden Daniels? | Deshaun Watson and Jameis Winston yell at their teammates

• Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Will Anthony Richardson (hip) miss another week, opening the door for Joe Flacco to start? Jonathan Taylor is suffering from a mild ankle sprain, so his status is also questionable. That’s a lot to deal with against the Jaguars, who are in complete despair at 0-4. Trevor Lawrence had better protection in Week 4, and if that continues, then the Jaguars will get their first win.

Take: Jaguars 21, Colts 19

MORE: Anthony Richardson injury update | Jonathan Taylor injury update | Should Joe Flacco start for the Colts?

• Buffalo Bills (-1) against the Houston Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

This is one of the best games of the weekend. Stroud will find Diggs for at least a touchdown, but the Bills are in a proving situation after the embarrassing loss to Baltimore. Look for James Cook to have more success in this game, and Allen will answer in the passing game. This should be a great back and forth second half. Stroud is 8-2 with a 107.2 QB rating at home, and the only losses were to division rivals Indianapolis and Jacksonville last season. Buffalo breaks the trend.

Take: Bills 33, Texans 27

MORE: How Josh Allen’s fumble stopped Bills’ comeback against Ravens

• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox

The Raiders were able to beat Cleveland despite injuries to key players like Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams, but the team of Alexander Mattison and Zamir White kept Las Vegas going. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has benefited from a strong defense that has allowed 29 points over the past three weeks. The Raiders have won eight straight games against the Broncos since arriving in Las Vegas. Nix ends this streak.

Take: Broncos 18, Raiders 17

MORE: Tyler Badie injury update after scary sideline incident | Bo Nix throws for -7 yards in first half vs. Jets

• Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox

The 49ers have the biggest gap of the week against the Cardinals, who have been extremely inconsistent in their last three losses. San Francisco has forced five turnovers in two games – both coverages – and has won the last three meetings against Arizona by an average of 22 points per game. The Cardinals struggle against the run (146.5), which means another 100-yard game for Jordan Mason. Brock Purdy tacks on a pair of TDs.

Take: 49ers 31, Cardinals 17

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• Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS

Jordan Love threw three interceptions in his first game back from a sprained MCL, but the Packers found a rhythm in the second half in the loss to the Vikings. The Rams are struggling without receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Cupp. This is Green Bay’s second trip to Los Angeles since the Rams left St. Louis. The Packers have won the last four meetings. Love was 4-5 S/U on the road last season, but Green Bay should be fine if they avoid the same turnovers.

Take: Packers 28, Rams 18

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• New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS

The pressure is on Daniel Jones for a Giants team that has generated 18 points per game over the past three weeks in a string of one-score games. Seattle is coming off a short week, but Geno Smith has managed to stay on schedule at quarterback under first-year coach Mike Macdonald. The Giants are 2-8 S/U and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog under Brian Daboll.

Take: Seahawks 28, Giants 20

MORE: Drops – not Daniel Jones – doom Giants vs Cowboys | Malik Nabers injury update

• Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock

Dallas and Pittsburgh have met five times in the century, and those games were decided by 4.8 points per game. Justin Fields totaled 367 yards in the Week 4 loss to Indianapolis, and he continues to improve each week. The Cowboys defense could be without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, which would put more pressure on Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are 2-0 S/U on the road this year, however, and Prescott finds a way – perhaps with the help of a Brandon Aubrey field goal – to lead Dallas to a surprising upset on the road .

Take: Cowboys 24, Steelers 23

MORE: Micah Parsons injury update

• New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC

The Chiefs continue to play through injuries, and Rashee Rice is the latest to leave a hole at receiver. That means Patrick Mahomes will rely more on Kareem Hunter and Travis Kelce, who got on track with seven catches for 89 yards in Week 4. The Saints have lost two in a row, but they have a record is 2-0 against the spread on the road this season with a top-10 defense allowing just 17.7 points per game.

Take: Chiefs 21, Saints 17

MORE: Rashee Rice injury update | Chiefs will need even more Travis Kelce