For the Patriots, the downward trend is familiar

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. – Deja vu, what do you think?

The Patriots are 1-3 again, handcuffed by a decrepit offensive line.

Their starting quarterback looks like a lit candle, melting under constant heat until seemingly nothing but a stump of him remains. Injuries have toppled their top defenders like dominoes, and a recent road loss to an NFC power has forced many to reconsider the Patriots’ ceiling, while a beatable opponent and a little home cooking could provide a boost in week 5.

Last year, that opponent was the Saints, who instead handed the Patriots a modest 34-0 slice of the pie, the worst home shutout loss in franchise history. The consequences of this defeat carried over into the rest of the season; namely, Mac Jones losing the locker room and the uncertainty of Bill Belichick’s future hanging over the team until the end of the year.

Even if the Patriots lose to the Dolphins 1-3 on Sunday, there’s one major difference between last year’s crash and this one: The head coach knows he’s not going anywhere and freely admits that his team might not be either.

“We knew going into the season we would take our lumps,” Patriots coach Jerod Mayo said Wednesday, “and even after the first game where we beat Cincinnati, we realized it wasn’t tenable as far as winning this way.”

OK, but let’s take a break.

Is this the same coach who openly challenged opponents to stop the Patriots’ rushing attack and bragged that they would still field a solid run defense hours after upsetting the Bengals? Now lumps and losses were always inevitable? Really?

Not that Mayo is wrong.

It was unreasonable to expect the talent-starved Pats to repeat their Week 1 victory, knowing that much of it depended on turnover luck; a forced fumble by long snapper Joe Cardona and another recovered at the one-yard line, which prevented a Bengals touchdown and led to a Patriots field goal. Not to mention, the Pats recovered their only fumble that day on a separate field goal that helped them become the first team this season to score fewer than 17 points and win.

Three weeks later, NFL teams are 4-33 when scoring fewer than 17 this season, and the Patriots’ paths to points seem narrower than ever.

To recap: David Andrews is gone. The Pats’ starting center, captain and first line of defense against inbound passers are facing season-ending shoulder surgery. In Alex Van Pelt’s offense, the center controls the protections and makes line adjustments. Now those duties fall to backup Nick Leverett, who took all 43 snaps at center over the previous three seasons in Tampa Bay.

With Andrews, the Patriots have allowed a 49% pressure rate and 10 QB hits per game. Now he’s replaced by a player who was on the roster bubble until no other lineman could consistently get the ball in training camp. Oh, and the Patriots also went through four different left tackles and their rookie right guard is a five-pressure-per-game spinner.

Cheers.

Andrews, of course, is far from the Patriots’ only missing piece. On any offseason list of the team’s dozen most indispensable players, five are gone: Andrews, Matthew Judon, Christian Barmore, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Kyle Dugger, whose ankle injury is likely prevent him from playing Sunday against Miami and perhaps longer. Without Dugger and Jabrill Peppers (shoulder injury), the Patriots’ strongest group will be reduced to veteran Jaylinn Hawkins, undrafted rookie Dell Pettus and special teamer Brenden Schooler.

Even with Dugger and Peppers, the defense ranks 31st on third downs. Offensively, the issues go beyond poor pass protection. Twenty-four players have more receiving yards than the entire Patriots receiving corps. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson can’t stop fumbling.

All of this is to say that the Pats have been down this path before. It is a march towards misery strewn with doubts and paved with dysfunctions. Not that Mayo is concerned – yet.

“I’m not worried about the locker room, especially at the moment. I would also say that the players understand that it is still early in the season,” he said on Wednesday. “So we’ll see what that looks like in the future.”

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