USC vs. Minnesota Prediction: Who Wins and Why?

One of the new Big Ten conference games brought by the realignment kicks off this weekend from the Twin Cities as No. 11 USC hits the road against Minnesota in Week 6 of college football on Saturday. Let’s check our updated prediction for the game.

Both of these teams are coming off 27-24 losses at Michigan over the past few weeks, with the Trojans going 1-1 in conference play while the Gophers are 0-2 and struggling so far against the Big Ten opposition.

USC is coming off its first win in the Big Ten, rebounding from some costly turnovers against Wisconsin to earn a big win by scoring 28 unanswered points.

Minnesota has allowed 503 rushing yards to the Wolverines and Hawkeyes through its first two conference games, but faces a Trojan rushing attack that is 88th in FBS so far.

What can we expect at the match? Here’s what you need to watch out for as USC travels to Minnesota in this Week 6 college football matchup, with our updated prediction.

1. Test the Gophers. USC’s passing game is a team strength, as is Minnesota’s pass defense, a unit that ranks among the best in college football in total production and the only one in the country allowing fewer than 100 yards per game on average.

The Gophers intercepted 8 passes, the third-most, allowed 1 touchdown through the air and gave up just 4.3 yards per attempt from opposing passers, the second-best mark in the country.

2. Third attempts. USC leads the Big Ten in third-down defense, allowing just 13 conversions on 49 attempts (27 percent) and is 23rd in third-down offense among 134 FBS teams so far, converting 49 percent of chances.

This allows the Trojans to dominate time of possession and gives them a decisive advantage against the Gophers, whose ground game and mid-range passing strategy are ill-equipped to consistently handle longer third-down chances.

3. Minnesota can’t move. Max Brosmer is overall efficient at throwing the ball, but he has just as many TDs and INTs over the last 3 games and the Gophers’ ground game is second worst in the Big Ten in yardage per game and posts all 3.4 yards per game. to carry.

USC’s improved defense does a solid job when the ball is in the air, ranking 15th nationally against the pass in total production and has intercepted as many throws as it has allowed touchdowns through the air ( 3).

Most analytical models side with the Trojans against the Gophers this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select winners.

USC is projected to win the game in 71.8 percent of the most recent computer simulations.

That leaves Minnesota as the expected winner in the remaining 28.2 percent of simulations.

USC should be 8.4 points better than Minnesota on the same court in both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest predictions.

More… USC vs. Minnesota Prediction: What the Analytics Say

USC is an 8.5-point favorite against Minnesota, according to FanDuel Sportsbook lines.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points in the game.

And that set the money odds for USC at -320 and Minnesota at +260 to win outright.

Most bets currently have USC handling Minnesota this weekend, according to the latest spread consensus picks, via Odds Shark.

A plurality of bettors — 66 percent of them — predict the Trojans will defeat the Gophers and cover the spread.

The remaining 34 percent of bets expect the Gophers to stay in line or upset Southern Cal.

A possible silver lining for the Gophers’ listless offense could be that USC, despite its relative improvement on defense, still isn’t really bringing the heat when it comes to the pass rush.

That could give Brosmer and his receivers time to build enough momentum with a battery of mid-range passes that could move the chains and extend drives that suck the life out of USC tackles as the game goes on advance.

Some of the Gophers’ superb pass defense numbers might be a mirage given the competition they’ve faced recently, particularly some dismal passing attacks like Iowa and Michigan.

Sometimes one team only has point guards, and the other doesn’t.

And it’s the Trojans who have the quarterback and receivers to breach the Minnesota secondary and pull away.

College football HQ chooses…

More… USC vs. Minnesota Score Prediction by Expert Model

When: Saturday October 5
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT | 4:30 p.m. (Pacific Time)
Television: Big Ten Network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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