Topi Niemela and other undersized prospects caught in Maple Leafs organizational change

If you didn’t know better from watching Topi Niemela during the Toronto Maple Leafs rookie tournament in September, it would have been easy to assume he was on the fast track to the NHL.

Niemela’s skating, effective decision-making and puck skill looked far above the rest of the Leafs defensemen in two games against the Montreal Canadiens prospects. The Leafs’ 2020 third-round pick has five points in two games. Maybe for a 22-year-old, that was to be expected. Still, Niemela seemed ready for the next step in his career after a full season in the AHL.

However, at Leafs training camp a few days later, Niemela was paired with other AHL defensemen. Meanwhile, recent blueline addition Cade Webber, all 6-foot-7, has been deployed alongside NHL defensemen. Niemela only played in one of the Leafs’ six preseason games and her short-term future as Toronto’s Marlie seemed predestined.

On Friday, Niemela was cut from the Leafs and assigned to the Marlies. The team’s top defensive prospect – at least on paper – has barely gotten a glimpse of the NHL roster. Drafted as a cerebral, puck-moving offensive defenseman, Niemela’s game has evolved since arriving in North America. But he now feels far from the radar of management and the technical staff.

After a disappointing fall, is it worth wondering what Niemela’s future with the Leafs will look like? The clock isn’t anywhere near midnight for her chances of becoming a Leaf, but it’s ticking.

“I know I was drafted four years ago. But personally I don’t feel any pressure,” Niemela said.

Niemela likely spending another full season in the AHL is less an indictment of his playing ability and more indicative of an organizational shift that left him and several other prospects on the outside looking in.

Let’s take a step back, because the Leafs’ latest round of cuts makes Niemela’s draft year worth examining. The Leafs made 12 picks in 2020. It was the most picks they made in a single seven-round draft and was tied among all teams in 2020.

All 31 NHL teams made at least one pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. Only three teams have not seen a single one of their picks from this draft play an NHL game: the Pittsburgh Penguins, Vancouver Canucks and Leafs. The Penguins and Canucks each had only five picks in this draft. The Leafs’ poor performance is reminiscent of their 2017 draft, when they turned seven picks into one player, Timothy Liljegren.

An important caveat: Rodion Amirov was the Leafs’ first-round pick in 2020. He died tragically at age 21.

Still, most of their choices for 2020 seem caught in a shift in organizational philosophy. When teams undergo an overhaul of their management and coaching staffs, as the Leafs did recently, part of those teams’ futures can be left behind.

“I think we know what (Leafs general manager Brad Treliving) likes,” former Leafs director of amateur scouting Wes Clark said of the 2024 draft, describing seventh-round pick Nathan Mayes and his 6-foot-4 frame. “Big body. So, (we) try to execute.

A new focus on the size of the blue line only increases concerns about Niemela’s future. These were concerns that existed when he was drafted and measured 5-foot-10. He was listed at training camp as 6 feet tall and 181 pounds. There is an edge to his game, but he doesn’t always play like a typical heavy defender. But a little over four years ago, it felt like there might be opportunities on the Leafs roster for smaller players. Niemela reflected the editorial staff led by Kyle Dubas. Namely, the emphasis was on making decisions and betting on talent.

“We draft a certain way, and if the player is a good player and he’s big or small, it doesn’t matter to us,” Dubas said.

But things have changed, and Niemela’s future with the Leafs is questionable because of this change. Treliving’s emphasis on size on the blue line may limit Niemela’s chances of showing upside. He is now in the final season of his entry-level contract.

The Leafs’ recent draft picks, including Fraser Minten and Ben Danford, might not have high-end upside. But they have professional features and size. In Treliving’s first real draft as head of the Leafs this summer, most of their seven picks were in the 6-foot-2 and taller range.

Compare that to the 2020 class: Roni Hirvonen was drafted in the second round as a gritty center who looked ready to play on an NHL power play. He is 5 feet 10 inches tall. Veeti Miettinen, 5-foot-9, produced like very few rookie forwards in the NCAA after being drafted in the sixth round. He has since returned to play in Finland. Sixth-round pick Joe Miller is entering his third season at Harvard University. The crafty and intelligent winger still pushes 5-foot-10.

Should we now consider prospects like Niemela long shots to get into the NHL simply because of their size?

What if the Leafs don’t get any real NHL games from Niemela or their 2020 draft class? They might be forced to depend on whoever may or may not be available in free agency year after year.

Throughout his first season with the Marlies, Niemela was deployed in every situation. He rarely put his teammates in a bad position and thrived in transition. Defensively, he managed his missions well. If anything, he could have leaned more on the defensive side of his game while sacrificing some of his offense.

But the Marlies were always impressed by his work ethic and his willingness to step out of his comfort zone in hopes of improving. There seems to be a lot about his game, including his intelligence, puck movement and gap control, that looks NHL-ready.

Right now, those qualities don’t appear to be enough to warrant an opportunity with the Leafs. Not unless Niemela magically shoots about four inches overnight.

During Niemela’s release meetings last season, the organization wanted him to add explosiveness to his game but more importantly to grow during the offseason.

The irony here is that the Leafs might end up needing Niemela. If injuries occur to the Leafs, they are not rich in defensive prospects on the precipice of the NHL. Danford and Noah Chadwick are still a few years away from competition. Webber showed throughout training camp that he didn’t have the foot speed and puck movement in his game to warrant an immediate look at the NHL.

And so, will Niemela ever be able to add enough size to put him in contention for a spot on the Leafs roster? Or will he – and most of the Leafs’ 2020 draft class – be passed over for something beyond their control?

“If I do everything to the best of my ability, that’s all I can do,” Niemela said of her future. “If it’s not enough, it’s not enough. But I just want to give myself a chance.

(Photo: David Kirouac / USA Today)