What to watch for in the final days of the 2024 election in Michigan

First of all. Deep breaths. (Really, you have to try it! We’re doing it now and it feels great!)

It’s like this: with four days to go, we continue as usual don’t know what will happen next week. Moreover, no one doesn’t know what’s going to happen next week (even those who say they do). So in the final It’s just politics newsletter before election day, we’re going to look at what we do know and what you political junkies can watch next Tuesday and beyond:

Voter turnout: History suggests that Democrats will need at least 50 percent of their base voters to win the presidential primary and statewide U.S. Senate races. Republicans hope to gain a larger-than-normal share of black male voters this year and supposedly come out of the closet “low tendency” voters. Republicans (up to former President Donald Trump) are also urging Republican voters to abandon their skepticism and take advantage of early voting opportunities. A big question about that: Will early voting help turn out more Republican voters? Or will it, as Democrats suggest, be more or less the same number of Republicans who simply cast their ballots — just sooner? Democrats, meanwhile, are continuing their get-out-the-vote efforts in Democratic strongholds across the state.Detroit, Ann Arbor, East Lansing, Kalamazoo) and hope that moderate to right-wing suburban women voters will vote to stand up and turn against Trump and Republicans voting down. Former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney has been spending a lot of time in Michigan with that mission in mind.

US Senate: Those same questions about voter participation will undoubtedly play a role in the razor-thin Senate race between Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. The race has taken on national importance because it will help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate next year. It still remains too close for either campaign to safely consider, but we’re very curious to see if we’ll see split-ticket voting. For example, could disgruntled Republicans who voted for Trump in the past choose to vote for Harris and Rogers this time? We know Michigan voters have an independent streak and this is a race where that could shine.

American house: The fact that Slotkin is running for Senate means there is an open seat in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District (centered on Lansing and includes counties like Ingham, Livingston, Shiawassee and Clinton plus parts of Oakland, Genesee and Oakland). It was considered an exciting race when Slotkin ran two years ago and it’s an even more exciting race now that there is no incumbent. We’ll see if former Republican Senator Tom Barrett (who lost to Slotkin by 20,000 votes in 2022) is able to turn the toss-up district red. His opponent is former Democratic state senator and former Whitmer administration official Curtis Hertel. The Hertel name has a long history in Michigan politics. His father was a Michigan House Speaker, an uncle was a legislator and an uncle served in Congress. But that was a long time ago and the younger Hertel is from a different part of the state than the family’s roots in Wayne and Macomb counties.

Another race we’re watching in Michigan that will help decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives is the open 8th Congressional District (anchored in the cities of Flint, Saginaw, Midland and Bay City, including all of Bay and Saginaw counties and many more). of Genesee County). With the retirement of former Democratic Congressman Dan Kildee, the district’s voters have seen millions and millions of dollars flow into the campaigns of Democratic Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican businessman Paul Junge. This is the third time that Junge has run for Congress and it is clear to Zoë (after moderating a debate between the two candidates last week) that the enthusiasm of voters on both sides is high.

Again, and we cannot emphasize this enough, these swing seats in the House and Senate will help determine whether the winner of the presidential race Congress an adversary or an ally in the new term.

Michigan Supreme Court: These state Supreme Court races are among the most opinionated on the statewide ballot. The nominees are selected at Democratic and Republican state conventions, but you can’t see that on the ballot because they will still appear on the nonpartisan section. This also means voters who use the option for a straight-party ticket will not participate in the Supreme Court elections unless they run on the nonpartisan portion of the ballot.

This year two seats have been added. The Republican nominees are state Rep. Andrew Fink and Judge Patrick William O’Grady. Judge Kyra Harris Bolden is a Democrat and former lawmaker who is seeking to complete her term on the court after being appointed by Governor Gretchen Whitmer to fill a vacancy. Professor Kimberly Ann Thomas, the other Democratic candidate, is endorsed by Chief Justice Elizabeth Clement, a Republican-nominated judge who was initially appointed to the court by then-Governor Rick Snyder. We’ve talked about it how that shocked many Lansing people in last week’s newsletter.

Saginaw County: We know that Michigan is a swing state, but within Michigan there are also swing counties. For more than thirty years, since 1992, the presidential candidate who won Saginaw County has won the state. And since 2008, the presidential candidate who won Saginaw County has won the presidency. So we’ve been thinking a lot about what we can get out of this indicator in the current election cycle. Continue today StatesZoe speaks with a political science professor from Saginaw Valley State University about what he sees in the county. Listen today at 3 p.m States on Michigan Public.

Mis- and disinformation: Okay. So we said we don’t know what’s going to happen. Well, that’s true about the outcome of the election. But we do know something incredibly unfortunate shall happen: the unbridled spread of disinformation and disinformation. We’d like to be able to say we have a magic wand to fix it. We don’t. But we are not powerless either. Check out this Brennan Center for Justice page on the 2024 election. The Center is an “independent, nonpartisan law and policy organization that works to reform, revitalize and, when necessary, defend our nation’s systems of democracy and justice.” Take a look, take a deep breath, and remember that there are smart, strong people whose belief in a safe and orderly election process transcends party politics. They work hard for you.

Dig deeper: Maybe you weren’t planning on voting, but you read all this and changed your mind? Amazing!! There’s still plenty of time to not only vote… but also register if you haven’t already! Find all the details here.

Would you like to let us know how you feel about Elections 2024? Or would you just like to let us know what you would like more of (less of?) in the newsletter? We always want to hear from you! Send us an email at [email protected]!

What we talk about at the dinner table:

Early voting: Many people, including us, are trying to understand what to make of the early voting numbers we’re seeing in Michigan. With no-reason absentee voting starting a few years ago, and early in-person voting just this year, we can ensure that some educated guesses to try and make sense of the numbers (as of this morning, more than 2.5 million Michigan voters have already voted), but it will be weeks before we truly understand the dynamics of early voting. Are these early votes a sign of high turnout or are these people coming out early people who would have voted anyway?

State House: Because so much attention is paid to the top races, we still hold one terribly keeping a close eye on the statehouse. After shocking many politicians two years ago with a full Democratic takeover of state government for the first time in forty years (the state House, Senate, and Governor Whitmer’s re-election), Rick I took a look this week about what’s at stake in control of the statehouse. At issue is not just whether Michigan will see another divided government, but also how the final two years of Whitmer’s agenda — and her legacy — will play out.

Being kind: We close this week with a small request. Look, we know some people are excited. Some people are worried. Some are really scared. And most are ready for it all to be over. Let’s take a moment to remember that ultimately, no matter what happens next week (and in the coming months), we will all have to find a way to live together and, hopefully, treat each other. each other how we all want to be treated. If you have the brain space and mindset to be kind to someone (maybe even a stranger) in the coming weeks, we think (okay, this is really Zoe speaking here… Rick doesn’t normally get this Pollyannaish) that it just might a difference in creating the state and country we all want. We don’t always have to agree with each other, but we do have to live with each other. So please try to spread some kindness in the world. (Okay, Zoe is getting off her soapbox now.)

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IJP On The Road:

You can join both Zoe and Rick on election night! Zoe and April Baer will anchor Michigan Public’s live election night coverage starting on air and online at 7 p.m., and Rick will be in the field throughout Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning covering the Democratic candidates statewide. Capitol reporter Colin Jackson will be with the statewide Republican candidates, and you can hear all their coverage the next morning (and in the coming days) on Morning edition, It’s just politics, in the United States And All things taken into consideration.

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Yours in political nerdiness,

Rick Pluta and Zoe Clark

Co-hosts, It’s just politics

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