Higher Education, New Optimism, More Democratic: Findings from a Top Pennsylvania County

WASHINGTON (AP) — One of the most important signals of how people will vote is how educated they are. Voters who attended college are much more likely to support Democrats, while those without a degree often become Republicans.

So as the Associated Press looked for places to explore this topic, we focused our attention on Center County, Pennsylvania. The area is home to Pennsylvania State University, making it a classic blue dot in a red region.

But the county is attracting more people with college degrees, and the region’s small towns are moving from red to purple and purple to blue. Nothing is certain in this tumultuous election year, but the changes could help Kamala Harris counter Donald Trump’s margins in more rural areas. Here’s what we found in Center County.

Center County has 160,000 residents in the middle of Pennsylvania and has been a traditional swinging area over the years. But that has changed, with Democratic presidential candidates consistently winning in recent elections and Democrats maintaining control over the board of county commissioners.

The change is reflected in data on education. A decade ago, 39.4% of residents had a four-year college degree or more. Last year, it rose to 47.6%. County leaders are pushing to diversify the economy beyond Penn State, focusing on new attractions like the Iron Man triathlon and developments like expanding healthcare facilities.

Mark Higgins, chairman of the Center County Board of Commissioners, said the area’s growth is fueled by “boomerangs.” This means people who grew up or studied in the county are returning to raise their families.

The cost of living is an important factor. People are moving from bigger cities to State College because it’s more affordable, and other people are moving from State College to neighboring cities because it’s even cheaper. The result is that the blue dot is expanding in the municipality.

“We see an expansion of the college community and the economy,” said Ezra Nanes, the Democratic mayor of State College. “It touches every part of the county.”

Penn State is surrounded by a number of small towns that have long had a conservative reputation. However, this has been slowly changing.

Voters in Bellefonte, which has 6,000 residents, supported Trump in 2016 but supported Joe Biden in 2020. Once a struggling small town, it has seen a wave of investment and newcomers who have brought more liberal policies.

Change is not everywhere. Philipsburg, with fewer than 3,000 residents, has yet to see the same renaissance. The decline of coal mining undermined the city’s jobs, and voters chose Trump over Biden in 2020. “It’s a cute little town. It just needs help,” said Brittney Tekely, 31, who runs her own barbershop.

Democrats believe they can run up the score in Center County. Their plans include engaging the left-leaning student population, which is large but sometimes indifferent during elections. There is also an aggressive canvassing operation in the area. “Center County could have thousands more votes than we had in 2020 or 2016,” said Abbey Carr, executive director of the county Democratic Party.

Republicans are not slighting the campus population and have held events aimed at energizing right-wing students. Kush Desai, a spokesman for the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania, said they are doing college football tailgate outreach and focusing on winning votes from young people who are frustrated with progressive culture. “A lot of people who are elbowing each other are starting to move away and come to our side,” he said.