Why has solar development on the island been so slow?

HAVANA – Cuba’s large-scale blackouts, which left 10 million people without power this month, might not have happened if the government had developed more solar energy to bolster its struggling power grid, as promised, some experts say.

In a nation with abundant sunshine, Cuban officials have long had the opportunity to encourage solar energy as a solution to the nation’s energy problems. But October’s power cuts – the island’s worst power outage in years – show that little progress has been made.

“If there was extensive construction of solar, solar farms, residential solar and storage, for the most part, you could avoid the problems they have,” said Dan Whittle, associate vice president of the Caribbean resilient practice at the Defense Fund. Environmental, an advocacy group. “But they haven’t really created the policies to get there.”

Cuban officials attribute the blackouts to the U.S. trade embargo and other sanctions, the pandemic’s effect on tourism and emigration, all of which inhibit Cuba’s economy.

But experts say the government has not updated its internal policies regarding foreign ownership and private financing, especially for critical solar projects, and is still focused on petroleum fuels. This is despite the fact that, as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the Cuban government committed to 37% of its energy coming from renewables by 2030, an ambitious increase from an initial target of 24%. .

John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Economic and Trade Council Inc., said there was a lot of hope in the business community two years ago when the U.S. changed policies that allowed U.S. investment in private Cuban companies. But the Cuban government has failed to issue the necessary regulations to allow money to begin flowing to the private sector, he said.

“So all this investment and financing, not just from the U.S., but from other countries… that are ready to take a risk on Cuba, sits idle, and that amounts to hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars,” he said.

The share of Cuba’s electricity coming from renewable sources such as solar power and the burning of sugarcane waste has increased only slightly, from 3.8% in 2012 to 5% in 2022, according to research by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School and FED. This is a very small change during a time when solar and wind energy have risen sharply globally and costs have fallen.

Almost all of the country’s energy – 95% – comes from the burning of fossil fuels. Much of this comes from burning crude oil, a particularly polluting form of generation.

One of Cuba’s biggest trading partners, China, makes 80% of the world’s solar panels, according to energy data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie, and they are cheap. China committed in March to building 92 solar farms on the island, which are expected to add more than 2,000 megawatts of power, and reports in June said China donated three solar farms that are expected to add 1,000 more. But that business relationship has yet to lead to an expansion that would at least keep the lights on during the day. The entire country has just 252 megawatts of solar power at the end of 2022.

Kavulich said even China has its limits. The opinion of China’s private sector, he said, is that Cuba “seems to make no effort to pay the money it owes.”

“The Cuban dealership is the only buyer and it’s a risky investment,” Whittle said. European leaders tell him that they “simply cannot, in good faith, encourage companies from their countries to invest in Cuba.”

Cuban officials have acknowledged in recent days that more widespread solar power would have helped alleviate some of the misery caused by recent power cuts. The energy minister and head of the country’s electric utility has encouraged Cubans to buy rooftop solar systems combined with batteries, rather than the gas and diesel generators purchased by Cubans who can afford them.

“We are thinking about” some regulations that would encourage these solar energy purchases, said the head of the country’s electric utility, Alfredo López.

Cuba has struggled with frequent power cuts for decades. In addition to the US economic embargo, authorities cited aging and poorly maintained power plants, increased demand for air conditioning and fuel shortages due to a lack of electricity. The nation relies on imported fuel to meet its electrical needs, including from oil-rich allies Venezuela, Mexico and Russia.

This month’s crisis, which closed institutions including schools, shuttered gas stations and left people cooking their food on wood stoves in the streets, began with the failure of one of the island’s main power plants.

Human-caused climate change has contributed to extreme weather events that also regularly affect Cuba’s electricity grid. Despair over the inability to carry out basic activities has triggered recent street protests.

Whittle noted that there is no shortage of good climate scientists in the country. Korey Silverman-Roati, senior fellow on carbon management and negative emissions at the Sabin Center, said the Cuban government is trying. “There certainly has been a desire and attempts to build renewable energy infrastructure,” he said. “It just didn’t happen.”

On the island, technicians are working to install 26 solar projects in different provinces, López told official media last week.

Installations will increase fivefold over the next decade, said Lídice Vaillant, head of the Photovoltaic Research Laboratory at the University of Havana.

Besides strong sunlight, there is another reason why Cuba is a good candidate for solar energy. A significant portion of its electricity comes from smaller plants distributed throughout the country. Solar power can be added or disabled at these locations. But that hasn’t happened yet.

“I think there’s still kind of a lingering belief at the highest levels of government that, you know, fossil fuels are really the best solution,” Whittle said.

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Rodriguez reported from Havana, St. John from Detroit and Lobet from New York.

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