Does Israel have a regional strategy beyond endless war?

Hamas shocked the world on October 7, 2023, when it launched an unprecedented attack against Israel, resulting in nearly 1,200 Israeli deaths, both soldiers and civilians.

The attack marked a significant moment in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, challenging Israel’s long-standing military and intelligence dominance, which has largely dictated the rules of engagement.

Israel responded with heavy airstrikes on the Gaza Strip and, in less than a month, launched a ground invasion.

Over the past year, Israel’s operation has continued to expand under the guise of “eliminating Hamas.” The brutal war resulted in nearly 43,000 Palestinian deaths, most of them women and children, and the widespread destruction of infrastructure. It also led to the mass forced displacement of around 1.9 million Palestinians.

The conflict also began to spread to neighboring countries, raising concerns of a wider regional war as tensions rose.

But now that a year has passed since October 7, and following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza last week, how close is Israel to achieving its strategic objectives in Gaza and beyond?

According to researcher Antoine Shalhat, following Sinwar’s death, some analysts were quick to see it as a potential opening for a ceasefire in Gaza and an opportunity to negotiate the release of around 100 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and other factions.

However, while the broader consequences of Sinwar’s death remain uncertain, such optimism seems misplaced, ignoring the deeper issues and motivations driving the conflict.

“For Hamas, losing its political leader Sinwar, just months after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, is a setback for the group’s leadership structure. However, Hamas remains adaptable, with its decision-making spread across a network of leaders both inside Gaza and in exile,” Shalhat said. The New Arab.

Israeli leaders are maneuvering to avoid a final ceasefire agreement, Shalhat argues, with the aim of protecting their operational gains and minimizing the concessions they may be forced to make in future negotiations.

“They remain wary of those responsible for the October 7 attack – veteran militant leaders shaped by years of imprisonment, who have become familiar with the weaknesses of the Israeli military and leadership,” he added.

These numbers, deeply motivated by a desire for retribution and an unshakeable belief in Israel’s vulnerability, represent a unique threat. Israeli authorities are keen to prevent them from becoming key players in any prisoner exchange, fearing that their release could encourage future attacks and replicate the horrors of October 7 on a new date.

Israeli affairs expert Ibrahim Abu Jaber said The New Arab that despite all the destruction Israel has caused in Gaza, “it is not even close to achieving any of its plans”.

According to Abu Jaber, all military clashes between Palestinian resistance factions and the Israeli army are “asymmetric”, given the disparity in capabilities and resources available to both sides.

“However, despite all its power, the Israeli army was unable to achieve a decisive victory in these clashes, as seen in the failure of Operation Iron Swords,” he said. “Israel is still wracked by fear, tension and existential anxiety, as Hamas, although weakened, remains a force to be reckoned with.”

As for Israel’s “relentless use of excessive force,” military and security expert Jamal al-Khalid argues that this will only “exacerbate resentment, mobilize resistance, and further fuel hostility among generations of oppressed people,” whether in Gaza or in the increasingly volatile West. Bank.

“While Israel’s current military power may create a sense of dominance and control in the short term, such a perception becomes misleading when considering the long-term implications,” he said. The New Arab.

If Israel wants to emerge from the war with minimal losses, Jaber agrees that his government must focus on political and diplomatic options for resolving the conflict.

“Israel has faced increasing international isolation since the war in Gaza, and with growing global criticism of its military actions in Lebanon, which have resulted in a staggering number of civilian casualties, the search for political and diplomatic solutions based on clear strategic objectives is become increasingly urgent,” he said The New Arab.

“Short-term tactical victories are meaningless without reaching a political solution to end the conflict and spare the region from imminent war.”

A war on multiple fronts

Since October 7 last year, Israel’s handling of the multifront conflict involving Gaza, southern Lebanon, Yemen and Iran has demonstrated the use of overwhelming military force, reinforced by US support and international silence. , according to al-Khalid.

At the beginning of the conflict, Hezbollah sought a balanced approach between limited retaliation and full-scale involvement, exerting pressure on Israel, which as a result caused the displacement of tens of thousands of Israelis in the north, the call-up of Israeli reservation and the allocation of a third of their ground troops to the northern front, along with half of their air defenses.

The intensity of the clashes, however, gradually increased, and in February Hezbollah’s rocket fire surpassed that from Gaza.

In recent months, Israel has carried out surprise attacks that have inflicted significant human and material losses on its adversaries, mainly through the assassinations of key resistance figures, including Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah.

As aerial bombardment continued, the Israeli military announced in early October that it had begun “limited” ground operations in southern Lebanon, which could expand into a broader, long-term offensive given the recent deployment of thousands of additional troops to the north.

Military and security analyst Hesham al-Maghary highlights that Israel’s regional policy is supported by its military superiority.

“On the technical and intelligence front, Israel dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah with an operation that involved the detonation of sound signals, resulting in the deaths of dozens of the group’s operatives and hundreds of civilian victims,” he said. The New Arab.

“Israel’s aerial capabilities are also formidable, with a fleet that includes advanced fighters such as the F-15, F-16 and F-35, alongside high-tech drones capable of striking any target.”

Mahmoud Mardawi, an expert on Israeli affairs and security, commented on Israel’s strategy of rapid military action in Lebanon and Gaza, stating that its “results will vary depending on the general situation and conditions” on the ground.

“At the start of the military campaign in Lebanon, Israel’s objectives were clear: push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River, return displaced northern residents, and separate the southern and northern fronts. To achieve these goals, Israel employed shock tactics, intense firepower and targeted assassinations,” Mardawi said, adding that Netanyahu intended to “dismantle Iran’s proxies” and reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East to favor Israel.

However, he noted that Israel’s repeated efforts to realize these ambitions have encountered obstacles.

“The assumption that Israel has no objectives needs to be reconsidered,” he said, adding that although Israel aims for military victories, it has struggled to achieve decisive results. This is largely due to Hezbollah’s strategy of attrition, which involves the dispersal of Israeli forces and the exploitation of time and space to exhaust the adversary.

Over the past two and a half decades, this approach has proven successful, leaving Israel unable to secure a clear victory. Mardawi argued that the group remains resilient, continuing to “inflict painful blows” on Israel.

“Hezbollah’s ideological foundations, the resilience of the Lebanese people, and the group’s well-established capabilities have made it difficult for Israel to achieve a decisive military victory in open battles, especially when faced with sustained resistance,” he added.

The same challenges extend to other fronts, such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

In Yemen, the Houthis launched attacks against Israeli positions using missiles and drones, targeting more than 200 ships in the Red Sea since mid-November last year, according to US Central Command estimates.

The attacks prompted major shipping lines to halt passage through the Red Sea, raising concerns for Israel and its allies.

In response, the US, Britain and Israel carried out airstrikes against Houthi sites in Sanaa, Dhamar, Hodeidah and al-Bayda, to which the group retaliated by declaring all US and British ships legitimate targets, extending their attacks to ships that crossed the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean or any area within the range of their weapons.

Mardawi highlighted that the Houthis have significant human resources and that “Yemen’s hostile environment has forged a resilient mindset in its people.”

What’s next for Israel?

Abu Jaber argues that the United States is encouraging Netanyahu to intensify his escalation on multiple fronts.

“As the US presidential election approaches, White House decision-making has become relatively hands-off, particularly on issues relating to Israel and Palestine,” he said.

“Netanyahu may seek to exploit this political vacuum to settle scores, possibly leading to a significant military strike against Iran in response to the attacks he launched earlier this month.”

However, it warns that a significant attack on Iran could inflame the entire region, which is already preparing for the possibility of a large-scale regional war with unpredictable results.

“Iranian leaders, including the Supreme Leader and senior military and Revolutionary Guard officials, have repeatedly promised a firm response to any reckless attack by Israel, particularly if Israel targets Iran’s nuclear facilities,” he added.

According to Mardawi, Israel’s current strategy would be impractical to implement against Iran due to geographic distance, Iran’s vast capabilities and its extensive experience in conventional warfare.

He further noted that Iran has become adept at surviving under unprecedented sanctions, having built its self-sufficiency in critical sectors.

This article was published in collaboration with Egab.