Best MLB Futures Props to Consider for Pirates Phenom

We look at future odds on our best MLB betting sites for one of the most impressive young pitchers in the league.

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes has arguably had the most electric start to his career since Stephen Strasburg’s debut in 2010.

Skenes accumulated 21 strikeouts in 16 innings over his first three major league appearances. He walked only four batters and allowed 12 hits. His FIP sits at 2.26 and his projections for the rest of the season are among the most elite in all of baseball.

Strasburg pitched 19 1/3 innings in his first three starts, allowing 10 hits and walking five while striking out an absurd 32. Strasburg only pitched 68 total innings in his debut campaign, and he didn’t factor into the NL Rookie of the Year award. race.

Will Skenes do what Strasburg couldn’t (or wasn’t allowed to do due to innings restrictions) and translate all the hype into a successful rookie campaign? year ? Or is he also facing an uphill battle with two “veteran” recruits standing in his way?

We’ve scoured the odds on our top MLB betting sites to find the best bets for Paul Skenes in 2024, and there are plenty of great options.

Paul Skenes’ accessories for 2024

Rookie of the Year odds

(NL Rookie of the Year odds as of May 24; see our full MLB Rookie of the Year odds rundown)

Skenes could face similar issues as Strasburg when it comes to the NL Rookie of the Year award.

First, let’s compare his stats so far to those of the three rookie pitchers he’s grouped with on the odds chart:

• Shota Imanaga: 53 2/3 innings, 58 strikeouts, 0.84 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
• Paul Skenes: 16 innings, 21 strikeouts, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 54 innings, 61 strikeouts, 3.17 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
• Jared Jones: 59 innings, 68 strikeouts, 3.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

Skenes is already really behind the eighth ball when it comes to his counting stats due to the pitcher’s late start to the major league campaign. But will he be able to make up for this loss for the rest of the season?

Well, let’s look at the rest of the season projections for the group, via Steamer:

• Shota Imanaga: 124 innings, 129 strikeouts, 3.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
• Paul Skenes: 94 innings, 119 strikeouts, 2.99 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 119 innings, 129 strikeouts, 3.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
• Jared Jones: 109 innings, 108 strikeouts, 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Thus, Skenes is already both behind his contemporaries and expected to throw fewer innings for the remainder of the campaign. Does he really have a chance to win NL Rookie of the Year?

Well, he certainly has a chance, but I think it’s longer than even the market’s highest odds of +750 suggest (the price comes with an implied probability of almost 12%).

Both Imanaga and Yamamoto have logged multiple professional seasons with 150-plus innings, and each pitcher is part of a playoff-contending team that will lean on them down the stretch. The Pirates are not in such a position and will likely limit Skenes and Jones’ workload as the campaign progresses.

If you hold a Skenes ticket from when it was trading at around +2000, then I don’t hate it. But the hype has pushed his odds to a point where I’m uncomfortable betting given the stiff competition he faces.

Cy Young odds

(NL Cy Young odds as of May 24; see our full overview of MLB Cy Young odds)

Of course, if we write off Skenes in the Rookie of the Year market, the question isn’t really how we approach his Cy Young chances.

He just won’t be able to win this year, plain and simple. Even if you gave him Imanaga’s 124 innings projection, he would only be at 140 for the year. It’s simply not enough.

If you want to invest a dollar or two on his +20,000 odds via FanDuel or bet365, then go for it. But at this point, you’re better off taking that money to your local convenience store and buying a lottery ticket.

Total Regular Season Strikeout Odds

If I have to bet on a Skenes future in 2024, this is it (and I bet it while writing this).

DraftKings and bet365 are the only two of our top sports betting apps to offer this market, and the totals offered are the same. Sure, the odds aren’t as enticing as those in the two rewards markets, but it’s also the bet with the best chance of cashing out.

I’m of course taking the upper hand in this case, because diminishing Skenes’ takedown potential after what we’ve witnessed so far seems criminal.

Between Skenes’ strikeout total to start the year and Steamer’s projection for the rest of the season, the big right-hander would sit at 140 at season’s end. However, this is a market in which one or two extra starts – or a handful of extra innings during his appearances – can make all the difference.

If Skenes can reach 120 innings, he still won’t win any of the aforementioned awards. However, if he pitches 120 innings and his K/9 goes from 11.81 to 11.5 – or even to 11 – then he will surpass that strikeout total.

We know the mustachioed threat can rack up punches in batches, and those -105 over 144.5 odds at DraftKings are too tempting to pass up.

Regular season wins total rating

Only DraftKings offers this market among our best sportsbooks. It shows Skenes’ win total at 6.5, with an Over at -135 and an Under at +115.

I’m not particularly a fan of this market given the randomness associated with winnings. Skenes has already recorded one, and Steamer predicts he will rack up seven more. But the Pirates aren’t particularly good, and their bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball according to ERA.

Additionally, the fact that the Over is so powerful makes this even less appealing, as you’d hope to see odds closer to -110 on either side for a prop like this.

This one looks like a trap for more casual punters looking to capitalize on the Skenes hype. “A good pitcher means he’ll get a lot of wins, right?” That’s what I imagine DraftKings is hoping these bettors will tell themselves.

Maybe Skenes finishes with more than seven wins. But I don’t see much value in this market if only one of our sites with the best sports betting promotions offers it.

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*Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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