25 Reasons Why Cruz, Texas Republicans Are Winning So Far And Colin Allred Isn’t

1. We don’t know the exact vote so far, but we do know the party history of the first voters. So far, Texas is not turning blue.

2. Tarrant County is not turning blue.

3. People who don’t normally vote don’t suddenly vote, according to political consultant Derek Ryan’s daily analysis of early turnout.

4. Either way, if your campaign relies on voters not voting, you’re in trouble.

5. Most young Texans don’t vote. Some are leaving the state.

6. Abortion law could be a winning election issue for either party. But it is not the only problem for either party.

7. The Capitol riot on January 6, 2021 seemed like a winning issue. But for voters, that was a long time ago.

8. Only 7% of voters consider abortion law the number 1 issue in two recent polls. Even Democrats ranked it fourth, behind defending democracy, the economy and health care.

9. So far, Rep. Colin Allred is not winning the U.S. Senate race.

10. This was always going to be a tough year for Texas Democrats. Republicans could follow Donald Trump’s example.

11. But Democrats still had to mount a serious challenge to Senator Ted Cruz because they risk losing control of the Senate.

12. Allred started out as an unknown, even to Democrats. He’s from Dallas. In Texas, most Democrats live south of the line from Austin to Houston.

13. About 1 in 6 Texas independent voters say they still don’t know much about Allred.

14. But even if Allred loses, his campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris could help Democrats flip some Texas House seats blue.

15. Cruz is not very popular. He’s just more popular than the Democrats.

16. If the 2012 Republican Party primary runoffs had not been postponed, Cruz would never have gone to the Senate. A court case pushed the nomination into a lazy, low-turnout runoff in mid-summer. Cruz came from 10 points behind and won with the support of just 5% of Texas voters.

17. Cruz benefits from a simpler campaign message: “legal immigration is good”, “illegal immigration is bad”. Allred’s position is more complicated and nuanced.

18. But Allred himself complicates his answers. What kind of border “barrier” does he want? How can we love all Texas children and treat them equally regardless of gender, but still support sportsmanship and fairness for girls and women in physical competition?

19. This is a Democratic problem: voters don’t hear a clear message. In Texas, they don’t even listen to Democrats. The party is rarely in the conversation in Tarrant County or most of Texas outside the big cities.

20. No Democrat has been elected countywide or statewide in 30 years.

21. Democrats haven’t governed Tarrant County in 38 years.

22. If Republican Sheriff Bill Waybourn’s race against Democrat Patrick Moses were close, we’d hear more about it on TV and in our mailboxes.

23. Mostly, the election shows that there is no limit to Texans’ admiration for stubborn, loud-mouthed TV celebrities.

24. In two weeks, the radio and TV will be filled with Christmas music.

25. This is a campaign slogan, but it is also reality:

Texas is still Texas.

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