Here’s How Social Security’s COLA Could Change If Kamala Harris Wins the Election, According to Experts

Kamala Harris did not make Social Security a pillar of her campaign. Instead, the Democratic nominee has focused on abortion rights, immigration and what she calls creating an “opportunity economy.”

This year, the Social Security Administration announced that COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) offered to beneficiaries of the programs it oversees will see its benefits increase by 2.5% in 2025. The COLA offered this year was 3.2%; in 2023, it reached 8.7 percent. Although prices continue to rise, the rate at which they increase has slowed, leading to a lower COLA for 2025.

Neither the vice president nor Donald Trump have campaigned on changing the way the COLA is calculated or other commitments to ensure Social Security benefits increase in value.

The math behind the current calculation

Currently, COLA is calculated through the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (BLS) for Urban Wage Earners and Administrative Workers (CPI-W) and comparing data from the third quarter (July, August and September) with the same average from the previous year. Leading rights advocates have raised concerns that the CPI-W is an ineffective indicator for determining COLA, since it does not consider some categories of expenses that are more specific to the elderly and of greater importance. The BLS developed another ‘experimental indicator’ called CPI- for Seniors (CPI-E) that weights spending categories such as “medical assistance”more than the CPI-W. If SSA had used CPI-E to determine the 2025 COLA, it would have reached 3 percent.

In September, the average Social Security payment made to a retired worker was 1,921.56, and based on the 2.5% increase offered, benefits will increase by approximately $48. If, instead, the value of three percent of the IPC-E were applied,seniors would see $57 tacked onto their checksS. This comparison is not intended to show that the IPC-E value is surprisingly higher than that currently used. Instead, the comparison draws attention to the fact that a gap exists. This gap indicates that beneficiaries may see their purchasing power decrease, even if it seems small.

Last year, the CPI-E would have provided seniors with a 4 percent COLA, 0.8 percent higher than that extended to beneficiaries. In just two years, the difference will increase to 1.3% and, if this pattern continues year after year, the benefits will lose value in real terms.

What would Kamala Harris do to solve the problem?

The vice president did not make any commitment to Social Security beneficiaries that there will be a change in the way the COLA is calculated. Some media outlets, such as Motley Fool, pointed to then-Senator Harris’ support for the Social Security Expansion Act while she was in Congress. Harris co-sponsored legislation introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), which would have required SSA to use the CPI-E in its COLA calculation, increased the maximum income subject to Social Security taxes to $250,000, and established “a new minimum benefit for certain low-income workers”, among other measures.

Like the California Senator, the Democratic candidate may have felt more comfortable supporting these progressive measures. However, as she moves to the right to garner support from moderates and independents, these policies have taken a backseat. Data for Progress polls show widespread support among Republican and Democratic voters for increasing Social Security benefits “by taxing wealthy Americans.”

Donald Trump and the Republican Party more broadly have not supported changes to how the COLA is calculated. The GOP candidate said over the summer that he would eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits. The issue pointed out by experts is that this would open a gap in the program’s funding, and that Donald Trump does not propose a mechanism to close it. While this is a short-term win for seniors, it could open the program up to more insolvency problems in the future..