Extreme heat: Florence, the silent killer, can no longer be underestimated

The world is burning and that’s not an exaggeration. Extreme climate-driven heat is changing the very fabric of our lives, posing an existential threat that we can no longer afford to ignore. The beautiful city of Florence, where I currently live during my stay as a Policy Leader Fellow at the European University Institute Florence School of Transnational Governance, is not immune to dangerously high temperatures. It should step up its efforts to combat extreme heat, both in the short and long term. Extreme heat is one of the defining crises of our time. The data is alarming and dramatic stories are emerging around the world. The numbers speak for themselves. 2023 was by far the hottest year on record, and this year is on track to be even hotter. Last March (2024) was the 10th warmest consecutive month on record. The impact of this extreme heat is being felt everywhere: in South Sudan, schools were forced to close for two weeks due to a 45°C heatwave, while parts of South America and Australia experienced their hottest summers on record, sparking widespread wildfires. , killing lives, generating heavy economic losses and damaging infrastructure. Extreme heat is an inconvenience and threat far beyond uncomfortable days and sleepless nights. This has a profound impact on health, from heatstroke and respiratory illnesses to terminated pregnancies, with alarming consequences for mental health too: studies show that hotter days lead to increased aggression and violence, even in confined environments like prisons. The devastating effects of extreme heat also affect infrastructure and public services, such as last summer in Buenos Aires, when some neighborhoods experienced two weeks without electricity. The economic toll is also staggering. A recent report from the Atlantic Council’s Arsht-Rock Resilience Center paints a bleak picture. Without significant measures, labor productivity losses in the United States could double to nearly $200 billion by 2030 and reach an astonishing $500 billion by 2050. Cities like Athens, Miami and Bangkok loses billions of dollars each year due to heat-induced reductions in worker productivity. This is not just a financial burden, but a crisis that threatens the stability of our economies and the livelihoods of millions of people. Despite overwhelming evidence of the threat, Italy seems unable to grasp the essence of the crisis. Extreme heat is often overshadowed by the most dramatic climate disasters, like hurricanes and floods. Sometimes the media even celebrates the arrival of summer and rising temperatures, without recognizing that heat is just as deadly and devastating as other natural disasters. The first-ever European climate risk assessment, carried out earlier this year, warned that Europe is the fastest warming continent, with many climate risks reaching critical levels. Italy is particularly vulnerable to the devastating effects of heat. In 2022, European heatwaves caused more than 60,000 deaths, with Italy being the hardest hit, with 18,010 deaths. In 2023, the Lancet Planetary Health study found that Rome had one of the highest heat-related mortality rates among European capitals for older people. In the summer of 2023, Italy issued a red alert for 16 cities, including Florence, due to dangerously high temperatures. The Piano Di Azione Per L’Energia Sostenibile e Il Clima of the city of Florence recognizes the general increase in temperature as the main risk linked to climate change, in particular the urban heat island effect. This phenomenon leads to local overheating in urbanized areas, with temperatures up to 4 to 5°C higher than in peripheral or rural areas. To alleviate this problem, Florence has prioritized the increase, expansion and redevelopment of public green spaces. For example, the creation of the new San Bartolo Park in Cintoia aims to contribute to achieving the goal set by Mayor Nardella of increasing green space from 23 m2 to 30 m2 per citizen. Additionally, the University of Florence will map heat islands, update existing tree risk mapping, identify polluting hotspots, and define a project plan to improve water infrastructure and open spaces. The city also recommends more public-private-academic partnerships. It is an important decision to recognize extreme heat as the main climate risk, but Florence should scale up nature-based solutions and go beyond strategies. The city must now take a more comprehensive and urgent approach to this crucial climate challenge. Establishing an extreme heat action plan with cross-sectoral participation, appointing an extreme heat coordinator – such as the city of Athens, Santiago or Miami – and allocating sufficient resources would demonstrate Florence’s commitment to protecting its citizens and its economy from the devastating effects of rising temperatures. In the short term, for this summer, Florence should work on raising awareness with a heat campaign to inform, prepare and protect people from high temperatures, especially the elderly, women, low-income families and workers exteriors. We also recommended the creation of cooling centers, following the experience of other cities. This is an inexpensive intervention that allows people to cool down and have fresh water. The city’s many churches could be used for this purpose. The threat of extreme heat is an existential challenge that Florence must face head on. The future of this historic city depends on bold and immediate action to protect its residents, infrastructure and way of life from the devastating effects of rising temperatures. It’s time to act before unlivable cities become an unavoidable reality.

Nicolas Azocar is Policy Leader Fellow at the Florence School of Transnational of the European University Institute. Governance________________________________________