Iowa caucus polling favored Harris far short of the final margins

The Des Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa Poll released last weekend showed Harris leading Trump 47%-44%. However, Trump prevailed over Harris 55.6%-43.0% on Tuesday night, with 81% of the votes counted.

The race was declared by the Associated press at 10:40 PM Eastern, less than two hours after polls closed in the Hawkeye State.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer did said on Saturday that it was “hard for anyone to say they saw this coming” and asserted that Harris had “clearly vaulted into a leadership position.”

The Trump campaign at the time had pointed to an Emerson College poll that showed the former president leading the vice president by about 10%. The Emerson poll appears to be a better representation of Tuesday’s results.

Following Trump’s expected victory in Iowa, Trump campaign deputy political director Alex Latcham issued a statement statement celebrating victory and taking a job at the pollster.

“Congratulations to Donald J. Trump and JD Vance on their victory. After four years under Kamala Harris, Hawkeye State voters want President Trump to fix what Kamala Harris broke,” Latcham said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINATOR

“From Day 1, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance will help lower costs, secure the border and protect Social Security for retirees like Ann Selzer,” he added.

Trump won Iowa in 2016 and 2020, and the state was rated “likely Republican” by the state. Cook political report heading into Tuesday’s elections.