Here are five questions California voters should consider

When President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump debate Thursday, what will matter to California voters may not so much be which man wins — Biden is far ahead and it seems likely he will stay there — but what that means in close races around the state.

What impressions do presidential candidates leave on their party? Do they motivate reluctant voters to vote? Do they help or harm candidates for other positions? Will Donald Trump say nasty things about California? Will Joe Biden’s age put off reluctant voters?

There are no predictable answers for what happens Thursday. Biden and Trump will debate for 90 minutes, starting at 6 p.m. PDT, at CNN’s Atlanta studios. CNN anchors Dana Bash and Jake Tapper will moderate.

Never in American history has there been a televised debate between an incumbent president and a former president. Never have presidential candidates debated so early in the year.

“Traditionally, general elections officially began with the convention nominations, but since Biden and Trump have blocked their nominations, this debate could happen when people who aren’t paying attention start to tune in,” said Christian Grose, academic director of the University of Washington. Schwarzenegger Institute of Southern California.

Trump is expected to be officially nominated at the Republican convention the week of July 14. Biden’s nomination is expected at the Democratic convention the week of August 18.

Conventions could reinforce impressions that could begin to form on Thursday. Here are the questions analysts will seek to answer the day after the debate:

Will the debate matter in other races?

California remains a heavily Democratic state, and Trump is poised to lose the state in a landslide again, according to a poll conducted May 23-June 2 by the nonpartisan California Public Policy Institute.

“Given the partisan nature of the state, a lot of people made up their minds some time ago,” said Mark Baldassare, director of the PPIC investigation.

But not necessarily for other offices. Republican congressional candidates in California have largely been careful to avoid tying themselves too closely to Trump.

Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey did not attend last month’s Republican convention, and his campaign emphasizes that he is “running for all people, not specifically Republicans, Democrats or independents.”

Two Central Valley House incumbents, Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, John Duarte, R-Modesto, Ken Calvert, R-Corona, and Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita are in races classified as tosses by the Political Report No Cook supporter. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the House next year.

Biden and Trump’s impressions will likely matter in close races. “We know that presidential results are the best indicator of congressional results,” said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, which analyzes congressional elections.

How much does the war between Israel and Hamas matter to voters?

Democrats are divided, sometimes bitterly, over how to handle the war.

During the Senate nomination campaign this winter, candidates differed on the need for an immediate ceasefire.

Polls show, however, that despite protests and divisions, the war is not a big electoral motivator.

PPIC asked Californians what they thought about the most important issue facing their country. Thirty-six percent cited economic problems, while 19% cited the cost and availability of housing and 13% cited homelessness.

“Very few people talk about global conflicts,” Baldassare said.

What will influence independents?

They’re not crazy about Trump or Biden, or Republicans or Democrats. We wonder if they will succeed. Twenty-six percent of independents told PPIC they would vote for “someone else.”

The risk here, analysts say, depends largely on what Trump might say, given his history of criticism of the state and Biden’s ability to align more closely with the views of most state residents on inflammatory issues such as abortion.

“Trump could criticize California with derisive terms. This could hurt vulnerable California Republicans in competitive districts that are pro-California and Republican,” Grose said.

Independent voters may also be more likely to be swayed by recalling Democrats’ support for abortion rights.

“Biden will likely raise the issue because it helps him in presidential swing states, but it’s also a particularly difficult issue for suburban Republicans in the House,” Grose said.

Is Biden’s age a big deal?

Biden is 81 years old. Trump is 78. If any of them stumble and reinforce stereotypes about aging – memory loss, confusion, slow speech, etc. – this could influence an undecided voter.

“Persuasive voters will be watching to see if Biden can appear strong and authoritarian, pushing back against the narrative that he is too old for another term. For Trump, they will be watching to see if he has a handle on the issues rather than coming across as bombastic and off-putting,” said Tom Hogen-Esch, a political science professor at California State University Northridge.

Some voters, especially younger ones, may be hesitant to vote for someone who seems too old, experts said.

“Age is probably a dominant factor because it’s immutable. Global and national circumstances come and go. Biden is just getting older,” Rubashkin said. “For voters, it’s an ever-present factor that they have to reckon with.”

Trump, inaugurated president in 2017 at the age of 70, would be the oldest president ever inaugurated if he wins this time. But, Rubashkin said, “Trump doesn’t come off as old as Biden.

Who presided over the best economy?

This will be an important topic, with both candidates claiming to have presided over a period of great prosperity.

Both have strong points to make regarding California – and both can be criticized.

Biden was president when California’s inflation rate averaged 7.3% two years ago. But it has since grown at a steady, calmer pace and is expected to rise 3.1% this year, according to UCLA Anderson’s midyear forecast.

California recently recorded the highest unemployment rate in the country. In May, the rate was 5.2%, but it is well below the double-digit levels of the 2020 pandemic.