Milei to meet Bolsonaro in Brazil amid feud with Lula

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The feud between Javier Milei and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva threatens to turn into a diplomatic crisis, with the Argentine leader using his first official visit to Brazil to meet not with the Brazilian president, but with his far-right predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

Milei’s expected refusal, who is traveling to Brazil on Saturday, comes just days before a summit of Mercosur heads of state, which he has announced he will not attend. People close to the Argentine president say he wants to avoid meeting Lula.

Milei is expected to meet Bolsonaro this weekend at a conservative political conference in the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, where both are expected to speak.

Libertarian Milei and socialist Lula have not had an official meeting since the Argentine president came to power six months ago, despite the economic ties that unite the two largest nations in South America. Brazil is Argentina’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly 18% of its total exports.

The diplomatic clash marks the escalation of a personal feud between the two men, which was reignited when Lula last week demanded an apology from Milei for calling the Brazilian leader “corrupt” and a “communist.”

Milei, who has been outspoken, refused to apologize and later referred to Lula in a social media post titled “stupid dinosaur.”

Political analysts believe the impact of the conflict will be felt by the Mercosur bloc, which has appeared helpless in recent months after failing to secure a long-awaited and much-touted trade deal with the EU.

“Mercosur is a very poorly institutionalized bloc, very dependent on presidential diplomacy. Milei’s decision not to participate (in the summit) is, of course, a political affront that has its roots in the enmity between the two presidents,” said Marcelo Elizondo, president of the International Chamber of Commerce of Argentina.

“The truth is that Mercosur has been going through a slow crisis for a long time and Milei’s absence only highlights its critical situation.”

Federico Merke, a political scientist at the University of San Andres in Buenos Aires, said Milei has long been critical of the EU-Mercosur trade deal and sees the bloc as an obstacle to Argentina’s unilateral opening of trade.

“Added to this is Milei’s general disinterest in strengthening ties with neighboring countries,” he added.

“If we take into account the ideological distance between Lula and Milei, it is likely that (Milei) thinks that his support base would be happier to see him alongside Jair Bolsonaro than with Lula.”

Bolsonaro, who was Brazil’s president from 2019 to 2022 and is accused by police of plotting a coup to stay in power after his electoral defeat to Lula, attended Milei’s inauguration in Buenos Aires earlier this year.

Relations between Brasilia and Buenos Aires have also been complicated by the arrival in Argentina of many Brazilians who took part in violent anti-government riots in the Brazilian capital in January 2011. The Brazilian government and Supreme Court have called the riots an “attempted coup d’état.”

Many rioters are seeking asylum in Argentina to avoid prosecution in Brazil, but their status has not yet been determined by Buenos Aires.

Gilberto Ackermann, an insurance broker arrested after storming Brazil’s presidential palace, told the Financial Times this week: “I can’t go back to prison. I’m 50 years old. If I go back to prison with a 16-year sentence, I’ll die there… (I) didn’t break anything (in the riot).”

He then cut off his electronic bracelet and fled to Argentina.

Political scientist Merke said he believed Argentina would not rush to resolve the asylum issue and would “let Brazil handle the requests and coordinate with Interpol.”

“(But) my feeling is that Argentina will not put up obstacles if there are extradition requests,” he said.