Analysis: Jokowi pulls out all the stops to prevent Anies from winning Jakarta race - Academia

Polls may place former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan as the most popular figure if he runs for re-election to the same post in November, but he will not win the election, and may not even be able to contest it, if President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has anything to do with it.

For Jokowi, Anies has become something of a political enemy in his bid to build his own political dynasty, to maintain power and influence over the nation beyond October 20, when he steps down after a decade in power. Jokowi has already managed to convince his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka to win the vice presidency as running mate to Prabowo Subianto, who defeated Anies in February’s presidential election. The former furniture salesman has other plans for himself and other family members as part of this emerging political dynasty.

It is not so much the Jakarta governorship that matters to Jokowi. Rather, it is the fact that if Anies wins the governorship, he will be in a strong position to run in the 2029 presidential election, making him a serious threat to Gibran’s chances. Jokowi must eliminate this threat as soon as possible, by any means possible, to pave the way for his 36-year-old son.

Tempo reported that in late May, Jokowi summoned the leaders of four political parties – Gerindra, Golkar, the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN) – to the presidential palace, where he told them they should jointly nominate former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil to run against Anies for Jakarta governor.

According to many polls, Ridwan is the second most popular candidate in Jakarta, but the gap may be too wide for him to beat the overwhelming favorite Anies. Golkar suggested that Ridwan should instead run for re-election as governor of West Java, where he is almost certain to win, rather than run in Jakarta and ultimately lose the race to Anies.

The previous plan to run Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, 29, as a candidate in the Jakarta election was also scrapped for the same reason. Kaesang is now a strong contender to win the Central Java gubernatorial election. Bobby Nasution, who is married to Jokowi’s only daughter, is the leading contender for the North Sumatra gubernatorial post.

On November 27, voters will return to the polls to elect the heads of their local governments, which include 34 provinces, 415 regencies and 93 city halls. The governorship of Jakarta is one of the most important, given its centrality, even though the city loses its status as the country’s capital, which is being transferred to Nusantara in East Kalimantan.

Jokowi served as governor of Jakarta from 2012 to 2014 before running and winning presidential elections in 2014 and 2019. Anies served as governor from 2017 to 2022 and, after losing his presidential bid in February, has decided to run for re-election next November, but he must secure a ticket from political parties, which are the sole authority to nominate candidates.

The two men do not like each other. Anies was Jokowi’s chief spokesman in the 2014 presidential campaign and was rewarded with a job as education minister, but was fired 21 months later. Since then, Anies has built his own political career, first winning the Jakarta governorship in 2017, and trying but losing the presidential race in February.

Jokowi, or through his agents, has met with other political parties that are considering giving Anies the governorship, to try to dissuade them from their plans. He may well succeed by August 27, the deadline for submitting applications. He is certainly making progress.

Since no party can secure 20% of the seats in the Jakarta Legislative Council to be able to run, they will have to form alliances to run a common candidate. Anies has to negotiate with several political parties to secure a ticket. That’s when Jokowi steps in.

After earlier announcing they would nominate Anies, the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which holds the largest number of seats in Jakarta’s city council, has now pulled out of the deal, saying it would field its own candidates.

The NasDem party, a member of Jokowi’s governing coalition, is considering appointing Anies but has not yet made a final decision. Its chairman, Surya Paloh, held several meetings with Jokowi in June, according to Tempo. The NasDem party was punished by Jokowi for supporting Anies’ presidential bid in February. One of its ministers was sent to prison for corruption, and another is still on trial, also for corruption.

The National Awakening Party (PKB) is also considering running Anies in the Jakarta elections, but has not yet made a decision. As a member of Jokowi’s governing coalition, it is also under pressure. The PKB had supported Anies in the February elections.

Anies received unexpected support from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which had previously opposed him. The party said it would consider supporting Anies. But this point may be moot, if not irrelevant, since the PDI-P failed to win any significant votes in Jakarta.

The PDI-P’s decision is more like the phrase “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” as it attempts to get back at Jokowi. The PDI-P had given Jokowi victory in his 2014 and 2019 presidential bids, but it turned its back in 2024 by not supporting the party’s presidential candidate, Ganjar Pranowo, and actively supporting the Prabowo-Gibran campaign.

Jokowi’s covert interventions in the upcoming regional elections, particularly his attempts to prevent Anies from winning or even running, could backfire and only increase Anies’ popularity as a man who opposes the rise of nepotism in government and a new political dynasty.

What we heard

Several politicians from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) said the party, which is of Muslim origin, announced its support for Anies as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the Indonesian Forward Coalition (KIM), which wants the PKS to switch its support to Ridwan Kamil. “PKS wants the deputy governorship to be part of the deal,” one politician said.

Another source, however, said the PKS would almost certainly support Anies, as their internal polling shows that the party’s base wants Anies to serve his second term in Jakarta. According to the source, a PKS representative met with representatives of the NasDem party and the National Awakening Party (PKB) to convey a message that the PKS is keen to take the deputy governorship under Anies if the three parties form a coalition, as they did in the presidential election.

The source said the PKS was considering allying with other political parties that did not nominate Prabowo Subianto, such as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Although it has already publicly expressed interest in supporting Anies, the PDI-P has not yet officially approached the PKS for coalition negotiations, the source said.

The PDI-P and PKB have also started negotiations to form a coalition in the Jakarta and East Java gubernatorial elections. According to a source, the PDI-P may therefore be willing to support Anies if he manages to secure the deputy governorship. The source added that Anies has so far received personal support from PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar.

A politician from the party that supports Prabowo said efforts were made to offer Anies a meeting with Prabowo. Anies is under pressure to support the new government. In response, Anies consulted NasDem leaders to discuss the offer. “Anies was advised not to hastily accept the offer from the Onward Indonesia coalition,” the politician said.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to provide a comprehensive and reliable analysis of the political and economic situation in Indonesia. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

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