A worrying message on Ukraine from a NATO head of state

FThere is no world leader who understands NATO as well as Czech President Petr Pavel. A retired army general and veteran of military intelligence, he was one of NATO’s most senior officials before being appointed to his country’s top job last year. His voice within the alliance has been one of its boldest when it comes to helping Ukraine, defeating Russia, and strengthening Europe’s military might. So his message seems particularly ominous ahead of this week’s NATO summit: temper your expectations about the war in Ukraine.

“The ultimate goal is obviously the full restoration of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, including Crimea,” Pavel told TIME in an exclusive interview ahead of the NATO leaders’ meeting, which U.S. President Joe Biden will host in Washington from July 9-11. “But we all understand that this is not an easy task. It’s not going to happen in the near future.”

He used a historical analogy to explain where the front lines in Ukraine are likely to be in the years to come, comparing them to the disputed borders that divided Europe during the Cold War. For decades, the Soviet Union retained control of the territories it had occupied during World War II, including the Baltic states and East Germany. The West continued to denounce these occupations and pressure the Kremlin to end them. Yet the status quo persisted, and Moscow retained control of these countries until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

President Pavel described a similar scenario to what can be expected for the occupied regions of southern and eastern Ukraine. “We must never accept that these territories are part of Russia,” he said. “We must always call them temporarily occupied territories.” But this does not mean that Ukraine or its supporters in NATO will be able to end this occupation in the near future: “Achieving a return to full sovereignty and territorial integrity is not a short-term goal.”

The alliance’s response to the war has made this clear to Pavel over the past two years. Even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has advocated for weapons to repel the Russian advance, the West has failed to deliver them quickly enough. The United States and Europe have been unable to produce enough artillery shells to keep pace with Russia’s military industry. In response, President Pavel announced a plan in February to buy the Soviet-era weapons that Ukraine needed. He and his government have conducted the deals quietly, as most sellers did not want to upset Russia by arming Ukraine. “This initiative came from the realization that we could not supply Ukraine with our resources,” he explains.

The goal was to find one million rounds of ammunition from arms dealers around the world. Several NATO members contributed financially to their purchase. The first shipment arrived last month, showing what the alliance can achieve with “determination and flexibility,” Pavel said.

But the extra munitions won’t change the overall dynamics of the war. The fighting in southern and eastern Ukraine has been at a stalemate since last fall, with neither side able to seize large swathes of territory. In the coming months, Ukraine plans to host a peace summit, where the Russians will be invited to begin discussing a settlement. The rhetoric on both sides suggests little room for compromise. Vladimir Putin issued an ultimatum last month, demanding that Ukraine give up a fifth of its territory while abandoning its plan to join NATO. Zelensky, for his part, has refused to trade land for peace, insisting that Russia must withdraw its troops from all occupied territories.

Once negotiations begin, Pavel expects both sides to continue fighting for advantage on the battlefield. Time seems to be running out for both sides. The Russians, he says, have managed to put their economy on a war footing. “But there are also limits,” he says of the Russian forces. “They will exhaust all their reserves within a year. And that will lead them to an extremely difficult situation.”

By stepping up their support for Ukraine this summer and fall, the United States and its European allies can give Zelensky a chance to negotiate with Putin from a position of strength. But that would require unity and resolve within NATO, and Pavel has seen a lack of both. Some allies, he says, continue to insist that Russia’s security concerns form the basis of negotiations. Others have resisted calls to continue arming Ukraine for victory in this war. As a result, Pavel says, the Russians “are not under any pressure to come to the negotiating table right now.”

The NATO leaders’ meeting this week will provide another opportunity to change things. But again, Pavel does not expect a major breakthrough. “Ukraine will not be invited to join in Washington,” he says. “Everyone knows that. But Ukrainians will be assured that the process is irreversible: there is a clear path to membership.”

It will likely take years to complete this path, if it comes to fruition. In the meantime, Ukraine plans to conclude security agreements with as many NATO members as possible, hoping to commit them to long-term assistance. These agreements, Pavel says, cannot serve as an alternative to Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, which commits all members to defend each other in the event of an attack. “We cannot and will not provide a substitute for Article 5 or NATO,” he says. At best, these bilateral agreements with Ukraine will serve as pledges of support. “Ukraine will be able to assess what it can count on and who it can count on.”