What does the surprise victory of the French left-wing alliance in the elections mean for Europe?

When exit polls showed a surprise victory for France’s left-wing alliance in Sunday’s snap parliamentary elections, sighs of relief were heard in many corners of Europe.

Centrists feared that the potential emergence of the far right in government in France – the European Union’s second-largest economy – would sow economic and political instability and undermine the bloc’s staunch support for Ukraine.

But with a parliament without an absolute majority and no clear route Despite the formation of a government coalition, the political impasse in Paris continues to cast uncertainty over France’s ability to exert influence in Brussels.

Final results Monday morning give the left-wing New Popular Front alliance 182 of the 577 seats in the French National Assembly, President Macron’s centrist alliance 168 seats and the far-right National Rally 143.

This means a potential outcome is a left-wing government that shares power with centrist President Emmanuel Macron.

Despite losing seats in the National Assembly, Macron emerges from the election with his political credibility intact, according to experts: “He will be less weakened than we expected and France will continue to be able to exercise its international role with a certain panache, as it has done up until now,” Federico Santopinto, director of the French think-tank IRIS, told Euronews.

A strong government in Paris is seen as a key pillar of EU stability. With France now in uncharted political territory and facing uncertainty over its future leadership, analysts are calling for a “pragmatic” solution that allows France to address pressing priorities while “warding off” the threat of the far right.

For Olivia Lazard, a fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, the far-right’s unexpected second-round defeat means Macron will “retain his credibility” while France will avoid “falling back into a kind of sovereignist and nationalist narrative that obviously goes against Europe.”

“France remains today one of the main European bastions against the rise of the extreme right and the influence of Russia,” believes Lazard. said “This means that Europe will remain relatively safe for some time to come when it comes to defence issues,” Euronews’ Schuman radio said.

“Relief” in Kyiv

A second-round victory for the far-right National Rally, which came out on top in the first round a week ago, would have posed a further threat to EU support for Ukraine.

Marine Le Pen’s party, which has historical ties to Russia, has pledged to limit French aid to Ukraine. In 2014, a Russian bank lent it €9 billion, despite sanctions against Moscow for its illegal occupation of Crimea.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was one of the first of the 27 EU leaders to react to the exit poll: “In Paris, enthusiasm, in Moscow, disappointment, in kyiv, relief,” Tusk said. said on the social media platform X. “There’s something to be happy about in Warsaw.”

European leaders – particularly those on the eastern flank – feared that President Macron’s hand in foreign policy would be weakened if he were forced to strike a power-sharing deal with a far-right government, which in turn would have diluted France’s financial and military support for kyiv.

Le Pen’s party had significantly changed its position on the war in the run-up to the European elections in June, saying it would continue to provide defense aid but would not send long-range missiles or other weapons that would allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory.

But the leader of the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) party – part of the victorious left-wing New Popular Front Alliance – has also been accused in the past of adopting a sympathetic stance towards Russia.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, defender of France’s military non-alignment – said In February, he said it was “high time to negotiate peace in Ukraine with mutual security clauses” and has consistently opposed sending sophisticated weapons to kyiv.

Support for Ukraine is one of the issues that could break the unity of the New Popular Front, which merges many types of socialism, from the soft left to the hard left.

For Laetitia Langlois, a researcher at the University of Angers, the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) and its leader Raphaël Glucksmann could play an important role in enabling a pro-Ukrainian coalition.

With 77 seats, LFI is the party most popular with the left-wing New Popular Front (Nouveau Front populaire). The more moderate and centre-left Socialist Party, to which Raphaël Glucksmann, MEP, and his allies belong, won 59 seats.

“Raphaël Glucksmann, who is obviously, as we know, very favorable to Ukraine, will try to perhaps moderate the speeches of France Insoumise,” explained Mr. Langlois. I think that there is a consensus within the country around support for Ukraine and the defense of the values ​​of democracy in the face of an aggressive and tyrannical country.”

“I think it would be difficult, even for a France Insoumise, to occupy a position within a government that would call into question France’s support for Ukraine as it currently stands,” she added.

Climate activists breathe a sigh of relief

The defeat of the National Rally was also welcomed by defenders of the European Green Deal.

National Rally leader Jordan Bardella, who had hoped to become French prime minister, had earlier called on the French government to “renounce” the Green Deal and attacked what he described as “punitive” EU environmental policies.

The left-wing alliance, on the other hand, has called for a climate plan aimed at carbon neutrality by 2050 and wants France to become a power in renewable energies such as offshore wind and hydroelectricity.

“These French elections are a wake-up call for European leaders. It is time to act to tackle deindustrialisation, underinvestment and household energy bills, which have risen due to costly reliance on imported gas, oil and coal,” said Neil Makaroff, director of the European think tank Strategic Perspectives.

The National Rally and its European allies had promised to put the brakes on the European Green Deal before the European elections. This position was also adopted by many centre-right forces in Europe, sparking widespread criticism that traditional conservatives were letting far-right forces prevail.

But once again, experts warn that Macron’s weakening hand could have negative implications for the fight against climate change.

“These results are good news for France’s commitment to climate, provided that the Parliament can develop a stronger coalition culture,” said Lola Vallejo, special climate advisor at the French think tank IDDRI.

“Macron can continue to weigh personally and strongly on international affairs related to climate and finance, as he has often done, but his position is more uncertain after this political sequence which is closely watched on a global scale.”