Drier air will flow in next weekend

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Models are better tailored to the Rafael track with this update. The storm is forecast to meander into Gulf waters as it weakens. With this update, the Hurrican Center predicts a loop in the track that will take it north early next week, then south, as it eventually disappears into the waters of the southwestern Gulf.

Rafael is moving west, into a mass of dry air and a hostile wind environment for hurricanes. Raphael’s eye wall begins to fill with clouds and is less pronounced. So after regaining its Category 3 status yesterday, it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm this weekend. As dry air is drawn into the storm’s circulation, it should continue to weaken into a depression, or even dissipate completely before reaching any land. The only remaining area of interest in the Atlantic Basin is just north of Cuba, along a path leading to the Bahama Islands chain. According to the National Hurricane Center, this disturbance has a 20% chance of developing. It may bring some additional moisture to the Suncoast in the form of isolated to scattered showers early next week.

As Rafael retreats from the Suncoast, drier air will move in. This will pave the way for us to have some sunny and slightly lower humidity days. As high temperatures climb into the mid-80s and remain a few degrees above normal for this time of year, our dew points will drop a few degrees and afternoons will become more comfortable.

The wind will remain strong, especially on Saturday. But not so much that it poses a danger. The continued danger will come from the propagation of waves and swells from Rafael to our coastline. This will continue to cause a rip current hazard into the evening. Only swim on beaches protected by lifeguards.

Mostly sunny skies should last through the start of the next work week. Some more tropical moisture may return by Monday or Tuesday, bringing with it some additional cloud cover. There may also be a chance of a few showers in the afternoon.

Drier air will return mid-week next week. Temperatures will remain warm and a few degrees above average through the end of next business week.

Later next week, just before the next weekend in ten days, models indicate a stronger cold front. This can add a real autumn flavor. Some models suggest highs in the low 70s and nights in the upper 50s.