Western leaders can take inspiration from Viktor Orban’s ‘peace mission’

The recent NATO summit in Washington DC was convened to celebrate the Alliance’s 75th anniversary and address growing challenges in the world. Despite the increasingly high stakes, the summit’s final declaration did not differ significantly from previous communiqués: Ukraine would become a member of NATO at some unspecified point in the future. The summit itself ultimately turned out to be a non-event and was dominated by sideline episodes.

As expected, domestic American politics loomed large. After a lackluster performance in the first presidential debate and a wave of news stories that questioned Biden’s age, the president again highlighted his mental acuity by introducing Ukrainian President Zelensky as “President Putin” at a NATO press conference. Biden has since suspended his reelection campaign, but his gaffes weren’t the only sideshow to overshadow the Washington debates.

In the weeks leading up to the summit, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban traveled to Ukraine and Russia to meet in person with the warring leaders. To cap it all, Orban met Xi Jinping in Beijing the day before the NATO summit.

This world tour attracted a lot of attention during the Washington summit. Orban’s diplomatic trip to Russia was criticized in the media and condemned within the EU. Despite the negative coverage, Orban’s succinct report on his “peace mission” provides several insights that are worth considering.

The report states that “tensions will not decrease and (Russia and Ukraine) will not seek a way out of the conflict without significant external intervention.” Orban bases this observation on his conversations with the Ukrainian and Russian presidents, “neither of whom is willing to take initiatives towards a ceasefire or peace negotiations.”

The report goes on to argue that the United States is too preoccupied with the presidential election to engage in a peaceful external approach. If a peaceful solution is to be achieved in the near future, the initiative will have to come from elsewhere, which will require the involvement of China and Turkey. This is an objective assessment, and Western leaders would be remiss to ignore it.

In an interview shortly after his meeting with Putin, Orban noted that the last time Putin met a Western leader was more than two years ago, when the Austrian chancellor traveled to Russia to confront Putin about Russia’s conduct in the war. By holding back-to-back meetings with Zelensky and Putin, Orban sought to take the pulse of the situation and bridge the communication gap between Russia and the West.

Moreover, in meeting Xi, Orban was arguably the only NATO head of state who had adequately prepared to deliberate on the issues raised at the Washington summit and brief his counterparts.

Orban’s foreign policy tour is important for another reason. On July 1, Hungary took over the rotating presidency of the European Council, which it will hold until the end of the year. Hungary may try to use its presidency to add weight to Orban’s discussions with foreign leaders.

This is why Viktor Orban is accused of violating EU treaties. This is also why the European Commission has advised commissioners to send lower-ranking officials to the ministerial meetings in Budapest. Such measures are intended to snub Viktor Orban and prevent further “peace missions” and the attention they attract.

The EU’s bureaucratic structure prevents the Hungarian presidency from having a significant impact on EU foreign policy, which is the responsibility of the EU High Representative. Josep Borrell, EU High Representative since 2019, claims that Hungary has not received a mandate from the EU to conduct diplomatic activities and that the EU’s official position on Russia “excludes official contacts between the EU and President Putin.”

However, what Viktor Orban can do is play a game of perceptions and rely on his relationship with former President Trump, whom Orban met shortly after. After The NATO summit. Trump also praised Orban in his speech at the Republican National Convention. What Hungary could hypothetically do during its presidency of the European Council is nothing compared to what the Orban-friendly Trump White House will seek to do regarding the war in Ukraine in January 2025.

All this has caused consternation among NATO members, but that would not be the case if Europe and the Alliance took a more sensible approach and put diplomacy back on the table. Regular consultations between Western leaders and their adversaries are possible and necessary. If a majority of these leaders believe that Viktor Orban is untrustworthy, then the solution is to take a leaf out of his book and go to Moscow, rendering his peace mission useless through their own concerted diplomatic efforts.