UFC 304 Predictions – MMA Fights

Leon Edwards and Tom Aspinall could become legends as they defend their titles on home soil. Or Belal Muhammad and Curtis Blaydes could make this a night to forget for England.

The top two fights at UFC 304 are packed with storytelling, starting with Edwards making his third defense of his welterweight belt. Edwards shocked the world by beating Kamaru Usman with a last-minute head kick to become champion, then kept the mood going by beating Usman again to retain his title. The less said about his win over a lethargic Colby Covington the better, but Edwards is ready to leave another mark on his legacy if he can end his feud with Muhammad.

As for Muhammad, a surprise win Saturday would be a nice comeback after years of being overlooked despite an ever-lengthening undefeated streak. Muhammad has never been the UFC’s first choice to lead a division. He’s now 25 minutes away from taking his destiny into his own hands.

The common thread between the main event and co-main event is that they are both rematches of fights that had unsatisfactory conclusions. Muhammad vs. Edwards 1 ended in a no contest when a poke to the eye prevented Muhammad from continuing, while Blaydes can technically claim he has a leg up on Aspinall. Technically.

Aspinall suffered a gruesome knee injury 15 seconds into his first fight against Blaydes in 2022. The injury sidelined Aspinall for a year, but he rebounded with back-to-back knockouts over Marcin Tybura and then Sergei Pavlovich to claim a share of the heavyweight crown. Aspinall is currently the No. 1 heavyweight in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, a lofty position that could be lost in a flash if Blaydes takes advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime.

In other main card fights, veteran lightweight King Green puts Paddy Pimblett to the test, Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues meet in an intriguing clash of styles at middleweight, and top featherweight contender Arnold Allen looks to snap a streak of decline when he takes on Giga Chikadze.

What: UFC 304

Or: Cooperative Live in Manchester, England

When: Saturday, July 27. The five-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 8 p.m. ET, all on ESPN2 and ESPN+. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

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(Numbers in parentheses indicate position in World MMA Fight Rankings And Pound for Pound RankingsINGS)

Leon Edwards (1, P4P-3) vs Belal Muhammad (4)

First off, I want to make it clear that I think this fight will be better than most fans expect. Yes, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad have a long history of uneventful decisions, but all it takes is a good style match and a little bad humor to make the magic happen. The elements are there for these two to be entertaining.

Both are so versatile that it’s hard to predict exactly how this match will play out. We can all agree that Edwards has the edge in striking, while Muhammad needs to be successful with his grappling if he’s going to have a chance of pulling off this move. He might only need one or two standout moments in each round to win them, and if Muhammad can score the occasional takedown and ground-and-pound, then that’s his path to victory. If not, he might have to deal with Edwards for 25 minutes (sorry, bad choice of words).

An Edwards forfeit would really shock me. Muhammad is tough and adaptable and even though he’s a step behind Edwards for most of the fight, he’s going to throw enough different looks at Edwards to force the champion to adapt on his end. This will be a tactical fight in the best possible way.

Unsurprisingly, this fight went the distance, with Edwards winning after five tense rounds.

Take: Edwards

Tom Aspinall (1, P4P-12) vs. Curtis Blaydes (4)

This will not be presented to the judge.

If you’re feeling fit and want to take a chance on a Blaydes decision, I understand the inclination. Blaydes is a tough wrestler when he needs to be and has defused many knockout artists with his powerful grappling. His surest path to gold might be to take Aspinall to the ground and avoid taking any risks.

That said, people tend to underestimate Aspinall’s wrestling strength. He doesn’t always need to show it, as his natural power has ended many fights before there was a chance for the martial arts to mix, but he’s not an easy target if Blaydes puts him on his back. Aspinall can threaten with submissions and has more than enough strength and technique to get the fight back on its feet. Blaydes’ wrestling will have to be the best it’s ever been if his plan is to simply smother Aspinall.

Blaydes has had no luck against the best punchers in the division, a category I feel comfortable placing Aspinall in. The big Brit doesn’t just hit hard, he’s patient and accurate, and he can take a punch, too. Even considering the unpredictable nature of heavyweights, there’s little chance that a prolonged punching match will go in Blaydes’ favor.

Aspinall by KO in the second round.

Take: Aspinall

Paddy Pimblett v King Green

This is where the responsibility falls to Paddy Pimblett.

I’ve been one of the strongest advocates that Pimblett is better than people give him credit for, but stylistically he couldn’t have asked for a tougher test for a veteran. Pimblett is not a better striker than King Green and he doesn’t have the one-two punch to catch Green. I imagine the “Baddy” crowd expects Pimblett to catch Green and push him around, but that’s something few fighters outside of Islam Makhachev have been able to do.

And I hope I don’t have to tell you that Pimblett is not quite at Makhachev’s level.

Maybe I’m completely wrong and Pimblett’s youth is the difference maker in a division where youngsters usually dominate oldsters, but Green hasn’t lost much ground in the latter stages of his career. He’s unlike anyone Pimblett has faced before and I don’t know if Pimblett has the tools to solve this particular problem.

All in all, it will be a great night for the English contingent, although Pimblett will have to go back to the drawing board after this one.

Take: Green

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Okay, it’s not Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape, but in terms of fights to put on the main card, you could do a lot worse than this middleweight matchup.

Christian Leroy Duncan has the potential to become a star and a fight in his native England should bring out the best in him. He is a creative striker who does not rush into exchanges, even with the aggressive Gregory Rodrigues chasing him. Duncan should explore the studio space here, forcing Rodrigues to chase him until he finds an opening for one of his most striking kicks.

Will we finally see Rodrigues rely more on his vaunted Brazilian jiu-jitsu? Maybe. Do I ask this exact question when I predict Rodrigues fights every time? Almost certainly yes. Just use the joooo-jeeeetzooo, “Robocop!”

Sigh. This one remains standing, with Duncan taking down Rodrigues in the 3rd round for a late KO.

Take: Duncan

Arnold Allen (7) vs Giga Chikadze (13)

Arnold Allen on a losing streak? Classic wounded animal situation.

There’s no shame in suffering back-to-back losses to Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, the latter of which was a genuine thriller that Arnold could have won if a few sequences had gone differently. As it stands, he probably learned more from those setbacks than he would have if he had won two decision wins over lesser opponents.

This isn’t a knock on the opponents Giga Chikadze has faced, but it’s worth noting that Arnold is more seasoned in combat. He also has a five-year head start on Chikadze, who has been in combat sports since 2008. Chikadze still has the skills to be a title contender, but he may be in decline, and that leaves him vulnerable to Allen’s fast-paced attack.

Backed by the boisterous English fans, Allen came out on fire and didn’t let up en route to a bounce-back decision victory.

Take: Allen

Preliminaries

Nathaniel Wood defeats Daniel Pineda

Molly McCann def. Bruna Brazil

Caolan Loughran def. Jake Hadley

Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio

Oban Elliott defeats Preston Parsons

Muhammad Mokaev (T9) def. Manel Kapé (T9)

Sam Patterson defeats Kiefer Crosbie

Mick Parkin def. Lukasz Brzeski

Shauna Bannon def. Alice Ardelée