Have the Philippines and China passed the Ayungin test this time?

Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin arrive in Manila as de-escalation at sea begins

MANILA, Philippines — There was some trepidation during the last week of July as the Philippine military’s Western Command prepared for a long-awaited resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal, where the rusting BRP Sierra Madre stands as a makeshift military outpost and a symbol of Filipino ingenuity and stubbornness.

The mission on Saturday, July 27, was uneventful, although a number of Chinese ships were monitoring the Philippines. ML Lapu-Lapu And BRP Cap Engaño (four from the Chinese coast guard, three from its navy, two ships from the Chinese maritime militia).

But there has been an angry exchange of words between the Philippines and China over the “interim agreement” (or arrangement) that was supposed to ease tensions in the first place.

The Philippines has repeatedly said it has not complied with China’s demand for advance notification and onboard inspections of ships during resupply missions. Beijing insists those conditions are part of the terms of the deal.

The exchange of notes has not been made public. The chances of it ever being made public are slim, although its existence was announced and broadcast at a meeting of foreign ministers in Laos on the occasion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers’ meeting.

The July 27 resupply mission was seen as a test of more than a month of efforts — among diplomats and defense and security officials — to ensure that tensions ease and that an axe or knife is no longer brandished in front of Philippine soldiers in the South China Sea.

The arrangement (or deal) clearly worked, even as Foreign Affairs Department spokeswoman Teresita Daza lambasted her Chinese counterparts on Sunday (July 28) for “mischaracterizing” the Philippine resupply mission.

“Instead of acknowledging how two countries were able to manage their differences to avoid miscalculations and misunderstandings, the spokesperson chose to distort what was agreed between the Philippines and China regarding the RORE (rotation and replenishment) missions in Ayungin Shoal,” Daza said.

She added: “Let’s be absolutely clear: the agreement between the Philippines and China was reached in good faith, with the explicit understanding that it would not prejudice national positions. There is no point in continuing to misrepresent what was agreed and how it was implemented.”

The veteran diplomat concluded her Sunday statement by saying: “The Philippines will remain committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes, including through dialogue and consultation, and will honor the agreement on RORE missions. We hope that China will also adhere to the agreement as negotiated.”

Government sources in the Philippines are adamant that Manila has not given in to Beijing’s demands, citing its so-called “principled positions.”

Why does China persist in saying otherwise? Could it be simply because it is concerned about how this recent agreement with the Philippines is perceived by its citizens? After all, it might not be a good idea for a superpower to have accepted terms that are not very advantageous to it.

2+2 equals more

After Saturday’s smooth mission to Ayungin, it is in a less tense West Philippine Sea that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin travel to Manila for the fourth 2+2 joint ministerial meeting on Tuesday, July 30, with their Filipino counterparts, Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo and Secretary of Defense Gilberto Teodoro.

No major agreements are expected to be signed at the meeting, although the treaty allies are expected to sign the General Agreement on the Security of Military Information by the end of the year – another milestone in bilateral relations that have moved into high gear.

South China Sea issues are likely to be discussed.

Blinken has just launched a lightning operation in the Indo-Pacific region, including a 2+2 meeting alongside Austin in Japan with their Japanese counterparts (who were recently in Manila for the Philippines-Japan 2+2 and the signing of the reciprocal access agreement).

In Tokyo, the United States announced plans to transform its Japan-based military command into a “joint forces headquarters with expanded missions and operational responsibilities.” Austin, Blinken, Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko and Japanese Defense Minister Kihara Minoru said in a joint statement that the modernization of U.S. forces in Japan will be implemented in parallel with Japan’s plans to establish a joint command for its Japan Self-Defense Forces by March 2025.

Both countries, through their ministers, have also called China the “biggest strategic challenge” in the region. The Philippines would certainly agree. – Rappler.com