Opinion | Ukrainians will not give up

On September 4, shortly before 6 a.m., Russia launched a salvo of drones and missiles on the old Ukrainian city of Lviv. More than 50 buildings in the historic center were damaged. Worse still, one of the missiles directly hit a family home. In an instant, Yaroslav Bazylevych lost all his family members: his wife and three daughters (aged 7, 18 and 21).

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with U.S. policymakers this week to present his victory plan to defeat Russia, it is important to understand where Ukrainians stand on the state of the war.

A 2023 survey of Ukrainians found that more than three-quarters of them had family members or close friends injured in the war. Sixty-three percent had experienced the death of at least one loved one. On average, a person had lost three loved ones since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. And that survey was conducted more than a year ago.

It would be difficult to find a Ukrainian who does not consider the war a nightmare from which he wishes to wake up as soon as possible. But few are willing to do so. do it at any cost.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his representatives claim to be ready to “negotiate.” But their idea of ​​compromise is to keep all the Ukrainian territory they occupy – and even some they don’t own. With such a proposal, Moscow is trying to define both Ukraine’s past (as part of Russia) and its future (as excluded from NATO).

Are there Ukrainians willing to accept any “deal” to end the war? This is a question worth exploring. And indeed, sociologists have been asking this question since the beginning of the war.

In June 2024, 80% of Ukrainians believed that Ukraine would win the war. Are some groups more eager than others to end the war? It’s complicated.

In general, older people are more determined to fight Russia to the end. This may be because older people will not fight themselves. It may also be because they have more experience and more An unpleasant memory of life in the Russian-dominated Soviet Union. A poll is only a snapshot; it tells us what people say they believe, but cannot necessarily explain why.

A poll conducted this summer reportedly shows that people who have served or are serving in the Ukrainian military are the least likely to accept a negotiated end to the war. If true, this is worrisome: it implies that while most Ukrainians are willing to discuss how the war will end, the military may not accept the outcome. The average Ukrainian wants negotiations, but what happens if the military doesn’t back down?

The survey data do not directly support this conclusion. Rather, they reveal a nuanced understanding of how Ukrainians perceive potential outcomes.

When asked “Do you think Ukraine should negotiate with Russia to achieve peace, yes or no?”, 43% of respondents – military and civilians – answered yes if Russia first withdraws from the Ukrainian territory occupied since February 2022 or if there is a change in Russian leadership. In other words, Ukrainians are ready to negotiate after Russia withdraws to where it was in early 2022.

If you ask Ukrainians whether they are in favor of compromise and negotiation rather than continuing the struggle to liberate all occupied territories, it is true that the military respondents are less willing to accept this outcome.

Ukrainians disagree on when the war should end. But their opinions differ mainly based on where they live, not their military experience. Twenty-one percent of kyiv residents support negotiations, compared to 31 percent of those in the south.

Ukrainians are open to a diplomatic solution to the war. But they are not ready to engage in fake “negotiations” with an unrepentant and inflexible Putin. 91% of Ukrainians surveyed believe that Russia would only buy time to prepare a new offensive, and 86% believe that Russia is likely to attack again. even if a peace treaty is signed.

In other words, Ukrainians are overwhelmingly convinced that the end of the war will come through negotiations. In 2024, 72% of Ukrainians agreed that their country should seek to end the war through diplomatic means, in addition to military ones. However, they are not ready to engage in bad faith “negotiations” that would start with surrender.

Tymofii Brik is a sociologist and rector of the Kyiv School of Economics. Tymofiy Mylovanov is an economist and President of the KSE. Alexandra Vacroux is a political scientist and Vice President for Strategic Engagement at the KSE.