I wish I could tell a happier story about Claudia Sheinbaum – Rio Grande Guardian

HARLINGEN, TEXAS – Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo could become Mexico’s president in October, but her predecessor will continue to pull the strings.

That’s the fear of Duncan Wood, a recognized expert on U.S.-Mexico relations and president and CEO of the Pacific Council on International Policy.

“Up until now, it’s been the Andrés Manuel López Obrador show. On October 1, it’s going to be the Claudia Sheinbaum show. Or is it?” Wood asked at a global trade conference co-hosted by the Rio Grande Valley Partnership and Texas Regional Bank, held recently at the Harlingen Convention Center.

“Andrés Manuel promised to go to his ranch. He will step down from the stage and be done with it. But will he?

Wood noted that López Obrador has been a fixture in Mexican politics for decades.

“I don’t think he’s a man who could retire. I don’t think he’s a man who doesn’t want to be part of the national debate. In fact, he has to start the national debate every day, and he does that by having his morning press conference. Will he have his morning press conference from his ranch“Who knows?”

Wood acknowledged that continuing to hold his morning press conference from his ranch could pose a problem for López Obrador. But he said the current president “can essentially force Claudia Sheinbaum to buy into his ideas.” And if she doesn’t, the president can “turn the party against her.”

This holiday is the National Regeneration Movementor Morena.

Wood said Lopez Obrador has inaugurated a new reform, which allows revocation of mandate.

“It’s the ability of the Mexican people to revoke a president’s mandate halfway through his presidency. What if she (Sheinbaum) doesn’t do what he wants… What if he turns on her?” Wood asked.

“He (López Obrador) said: ‘Of course, I will never turn against Claudia, she is the chosen one.’ But that risk exists, and that threat exists.”

Sheinbaum said she was a separate person. “We’re about to find out,” Wood said. “But I always come back to the question: Is she someone who does what Andrés Manuel says, or does she just believe the same thing?”

Wood said Sheinbaum was recently asked about exactly what he was doing. chief tell you to do?

“There are some gender dimensions to this question that are quite insulting. But she said, ‘Look, just because I believe the same things as Andrés Manuel López Obrador doesn’t mean I’m not a woman. I do what I believe.'”

Wood said journalist friends visited Sheinbaum’s office when she was mayor of Mexico City.

“They all told the same story. They came into her office expecting her to say, listen in public, of course, I support the chief. But actually, I have my own ideas. But what did they find when they entered her office? Two photos. One of her family and one of the inauguration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador as (what she believed to be) the legitimate president of Mexico in 2006.

Wood said Sheinbaum was with López Obrador on Election Day in 2006.

“She believes very strongly that the election was stolen from her. She looks to him as a father figure. She believes the same things to a certain extent. So is there any silver lining? Unfortunately, no,” Wood said.

“In fact, when you go back to her childhood, you see that this woman was raised by ex-socialists who had a lot of Cuban politicians at home, in her living room. When she was little, we talked about the evils of capitalism. She is a woman who is even more left-wing than Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She is just as nationalist as López Obrador. And she has very strong ideas that are very much in line with his own, even more to the left.”

Wood said Sheinbaum’s cabinet choices were mixed. He said the appointment of Marcelo Luis Ebrard Casaubón to head the economy ministry was an “excellent” appointment that sends “a good message.” He said Ebrard is “a more liberal and open politician.” But Wood was less complimentary about the appointment of Rosa Icela Rodríguez Velázquez, who was López Obrador’s interior minister. He said she is a “staunch nationalist” who would play an important role in the new administration.

“This will be a continuation of the concentration of power in the hands of the ruling party and the president.”

Wood said he wished he could tell the audience a happier story.

He then explained why this was important to South Texas.

“Look at how dependent we are on Mexico’s success. Just a year ago, I was talking about the potential for offshoring to transform this region. Offshoring is happening, but it’s not happening as much as we’d hoped. Why? Because investors are saying, ‘I know Mexico is a great long-term investment option, but now’s probably not the time,’” Wood said.

“Look what happened in Mexico. peso “Since the June 2 elections, the dollar has gone from 16 to 20 to the dollar, and it has more to go. Look at the amount of money that has started to leave Mexico. And it’s not foreign money, it’s Mexican money that’s leaving Mexico.”

Wood said there is a sense of uncertainty at this point.

“If you invited me back in a year, or two years, I hope I can stand on this podium and say I was wrong, because that’s what most analysts really hope for when they send a pessimistic message,” Wood said.

“But I can tell you this: It’s not too late. There are messages that can be sent from the Rio Grande Valley itself, from Austin, Texas, from Washington, from Sacramento, California, to say, ‘We understand that you have a left-wing agenda. We understand that you are nationalists, but you are also North Americans, and your prosperity and ours depend on our working together.'”

Wood concluded his speech by encouraging those in the audience to do just that.

“Let’s find ways to make that happen. At the end of the day, what matters most is not so much which party is in power, but maintaining a positive business climate so that we can attract the investment that we need on both sides of the border. So when you go to Mexico, take that message with you. Don’t be afraid to tell them that what you want is a positive working relationship,” Wood said.

“But it depends on legal certainty, the validity of contracts, etc. That’s the message that needs to be repeated over and over again. They’ve heard me say it before. They’re clearly not listening. But when they hear people who are moving money, goods, investments in Mexico, who want to invest in Mexico, that’s the message that really needs to be remembered.”

Editor’s Note: Rio Grande Guardian editor Steve Taylor contributed to this article from McAllen, Texas.