Trump overtakes Harris, has 4% more chances of winning, shows the latest US presidential election forecast – Firstpost

For the first time in the US election campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump has overtaken Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, according to a new forecast.

Just two weeks before the November 5 election, former President Trump has surpassed Vice President Harris, according to the latest forecast from Decision Desk-Hill.

The forecast shows that Trump is currently 4% more likely to win the US presidential election than Harris.

While Trump has a 52% chance of winning the election, Harris has a 48% chance, as per the forecast.

NEW: Trump surpassed Harris for the first time in @thehill/@DecisionDeskHQpresidential election forecast. He has a 52% chance of winning, according to the model. https://t.co/r0K5RIWWUS

– Brandon Conradis (@BConradis) October 20, 2024

Although Trump is a “slight favorite” to win the US presidential election, the outcome still remains uncertain as the most crucial swing states that decide the elections are too close to make a conclusive prediction, according to Decision headquarters Desk.

While Trump has gained leads in polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, adding to his existing leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, polls in seven key battleground states – Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – remain within the margin of error, meaning the election result could go either way, Decision Desk HQ said.

These states – Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – are expected to be decisive in determining which candidate reaches the crucial 270 mark in the electoral college and currently neither Trump nor Harris have a clear lead for guarantee that number, according to Decision Desk headquarters.

For much of the past year, polls have consistently placed Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, but that changed when Harris discussed the Democratic presidential candidacy. Harris changed the leadership and revived Democrats’ hopes of retaining the presidency. But, over time, fissures emerged, such as Trump making inroads among Latino and black voters, and the latest forecasts now favor Trump over Harris.

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