Japan’s ruling party likely to lose majority in parliament in early elections | Elections News

As voters consider the ruling party’s financing scandals and stagnant economy, they are also skeptical about the opposition’s capabilities and experience.

Japan is voting in its tightest election in years, with new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) facing possibly their worst result since 2009 due to a financing scandal and inflation.

The LDP and its long-time partner Komeito are likely to lose their comfortable majority in the House of Commons in Sunday’s elections, opinion polls show.

A record number of 314 women among a total of 1,344 candidates are running for office. Polls close at 8pm (11am GMT), with the first results expected within hours.

Ishiba, 67, took office on October 1, succeeding his predecessor Fumio Kishida, who resigned following protests among LDP lawmakers over slush fund practices. Ishiba immediately announced early elections in the hope of gaining more support.

But the LDP may face its worst result since 2009 – potentially leaving Japan in political uncertainty, although a change in government was unexpected.

Ishiba has set a target of retaining 233 seats for the ruling coalition between the LDP and its Buddhist-backed junior partner Komeito, a majority in the 465-member lower house, the most powerful parliament in Japan’s bicameral parliament.

In his final campaign speeches on Saturday, Ishiba apologized for his party’s mishandling of funds and vowed to “restart as an equal, fair, humble and honest party.” He said only the LDP ruling coalition can govern Japan with its experience and reliable policies.

But voters in the world’s fourth-largest economy are plagued by rising prices and the fallout from a party fund scandal that helped bring down previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

“I made my decision primarily by looking at their economic policies and measures to reduce inflation,” 48-year-old Tokyo voter Yoshihiro Uchida told AFP on Sunday. “I voted for people who are likely to make our lives better.”

Japan’s largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), meanwhile, is expected to make significant gains. Its centrist leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, said Sunday’s elections are a rare opportunity for a change of government.

Local media speculated that Ishiba might even resign immediately to take responsibility, becoming Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period.

The current record is held by Naruhiko Higashikuni, who served 54 days – four days more than British leader Liz Truss in 2022 – just after Japan’s defeat in World War II in 1945.

“The LDP’s politics are about quickly implementing policies for those who give them a lot of money,” Noda, 67, told his supporters on Saturday.

“But those in vulnerable positions… have been ignored,” he added, accusing the government of not providing enough support to survivors of an earthquake in central Japan.

Analysts suggest Ishiba may fail to achieve his goal, although his LDP was expected to remain the highest-ranking party in Japan’s parliament as voters are skeptical about the opposition’s ability and experience.

Ishiba’s party is also being tested to break the legacy of late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Abe’s policies focused on security, trade and industry but largely ignored equality and diversity, and his nearly eight-year tenure led to corruption, experts say.

“Public criticism of the slush fund scandal has increased, and it will not go away easily,” said Izuru Makihara, a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Tokyo. “There is a growing sense of fairness and people are rejecting privileges for politicians.”