Tensions are rising in Canada ahead of the US federal elections

With the US federal elections next Tuesday, tensions are rising even north of the border.

More than 600,000 Americans living in Canada are eligible to vote in next week’s election, and even Canadian citizens have a lot at stake in the outcome.

The race for the presidency of the United States is so close that Americans living in Canada could make a difference, according to Bruce Heyman, former U.S. ambassador to Canada.

“Canada cannot influence our elections, and Canadians should not be involved,” Heyman said, “but Americans living in Canada could be the swing factor here.”

Democrats tend to have more voting influence among Canadian ex-pats, outnumbering Republicans by about three to one in Canada, but turnout could influence that influence.

Normally, Americans in Canada have very low voter turnout: between six and eight percent.

However, both Republicans and Democrats are trying to change that.

“Our voters are very motivated, and many of them who weren’t really that interested in voting got their ballots and voted this time,” said Georganne Burke of Republicans Overseas.

“We’ll never see all 600,000 Americans in Canada vote, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that percentage rose from eight percent to slightly higher.”

Diana Keto-Lambert of Democrats Abroad says her group has been working to ensure American voters in Canada claim their ballots.

“We try to tell them as much as possible that their vote has a significant impact, not only in the presidential race, but also in the down vote.” So they vote for the senators and for the House of Representatives, which always goes up every two months. It is incredibly important to get laws passed,” Keto-Lambert said.

“So that’s something we do by reaching out to voters, doing registration drives and letting them know. In college we had students who said, ‘Well, I never lived there. Can I even vote?’ Well, you absolutely can. It is your right, and I would say, your duty.”

While Canadians have no say in the U.S. election, they do have a stake in its outcome.

Both candidates offer protectionist economic policies, and Kamala Harris is an environmental advocate, leading many to fear her stance on resource development.

But Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, says a Donald Trump administration may not be better for Alberta’s oil and gas industry.

“A Harris administration would really represent a lot of continuity from a (Joe) Biden administration. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provided many subsidies for renewable energy production. I imagine it would continue to be that way,” Young said.

“I don’t think Trump would look too favorably on renewables, but I’m not sure he would welcome Canadian or Albertan oil in the way some might imagine. He has spoken of oil sands as “dirty oil” and has expressed real ambitions. for the United States to be a major producer of its own oil, so maybe not such a win for oil and gas.”

The CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce says it’s Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on “everything outside the US” that is keeping her awake.

“I’ve never been so nervous because I’m really scared of what might happen,” Deborah Yedlin said.

“A 10 percent tariff on our energy exports — $166 billion goes to the U.S. from an energy perspective, so 10 percent, $16 billion — that’s a huge blow if you consider Calgary as an energy capital.”

Yedlin says it wouldn’t just be the energy industry that would be hit hard by sweeping tariffs, but almost every sector of the Canadian economy.

“We know that 78 percent of Canadian exports go south. 90 percent of Alberta’s exports go south. So we’re talking about agriculture, (we’re talking) about energy, we’re talking about the inputs that ultimately are in the future. Canada and go back to the United States,” she said.

“That’s a supply chain issue, and how are you going to untangle those supply chains from a tariff perspective? … This should be very important from an economic perspective.”

Political analysts say the Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement may only provide Canada with temporary protection.

That’s because it has to be renegotiated in 2026.

Trump has already said he wants to renegotiate, and Harris has voted against it from the start.