Here’s who’s in charge in the key 2024 election battlegrounds

North Carolina: Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points), an outlier among several other polls this week showing Trump ahead, including a Fox News survey showing him scoring 49%-47% (or 50%-49% without third parties), while leading 50%-48% in surveys published this past week by the Cooperative election study, Marist And Emerson College. FiveThirtyEights average shows Trump with a lead of 1.2 points.

Georgia: Trump has a 48%-47% lead on Thursday CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.7), and he’s up more substantially 51%-46% in the CES survey (2,663 respondents) and 49.9%-48.4% in last week’s survey Bloomberg pollalthough for a Marist they are equal at 49% poll (margin of error 3.9), and a Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Pennsylvania: It can’t get any closer: the candidates are tied at 48% Fox News And CNN/SSRS polls released Wednesday, and it’s 49%-49% in a CBS/YouGov surveyand while Trump is up 47%-46% in a Quinnipiac poll and 50%-49% if Fox News eliminates third parties, Harris has a 49%-48% lead in a major Cooperative election study survey (3,685 respondents). Monmouth found Trump is up 47%-46% among all registered voters, but Harris leads 48%-47% among people who vote in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Michigan: Trump has a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday showing him at 47%-45%, though three other surveys this week show Harris with the lead, including the Fox News poll showing her up 48%-46% (although there is a tie at 49% without third parties), 51%-46% in the CES survey (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in the CNN/SSRS poll–while Trump leads 49%-48% in a Emerson Survey released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up 1.1 points in Michigan on FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Wisconsin: Harris ranks 50%-47% higher than Trump in the CES survey (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in a Marquette Surveywhile Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson questionnaire and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is 0.7 points higher in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51%-47% in the CES questionnaire (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS questionnaire released Tuesday (4.6 point margin of error) and Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg poll released on October 23 (margin of error 5). Harris is 0.1 point higher in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51%-47% in the CES survey (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist survey poll released on October 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN poll this week /SSRS (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.